We can say with confidence that low pressure will eject from the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and move northeast through Saturday night. However, beyond that, there is a lot of confusion as to the ultimate track of the low.
The GFS has been adament on sending the low well southeast of the region, keeping everyone, except maybe the cape, precipitation free. The Euro has been consistently a little west of the GFS, but still well offshore, and a miss for New England. The NAM has been west, and in the 18z run, dumps 3 to 6 inches over much of the region. The UKMET is also west, but not as extreme.
At this point, a GFS/NAM compromise is looking good -- something close or just west of the Euro. Tonight's 00z runs will be very important.
As colder air drains in behind this latest storm, and is reinforced northwest of the weekend low, precipitation could fall as snow as far south as Louisiana. In fact, there are winter storm watches out down there, and for the mountains in western North Carolina. Yes, it is possible that these southern locations rack up seasonal snow totals before Keene, NH does.
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Beyond this storm, there is a growing threat for a major system affecting the eastern third of the nation next Wednesday into Thursday. I hope to post more details tomorrow night.
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