Quick intro to Wednesday's storm

I don't have much time right now, and will have even less tomorrow, but I wanted to give a quick introduction to our storm threat next week.

It all starts with a trough amplifying over the Pacific northwest through Monday. By Tuesday, that energy drops into the southwest, and triggers surface cyclogenesis over Colorado. The trough will move through the southern plains, tilting negative Tuesday night into Wednesday, with strong low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley.

A couple things model guidance is starting to latch onto is that this primary low will move west of New England, and likely will be at least down into the 980's if not lower (UKMET run had a 966mb low yesterday).

The next variable is with the development of a secondary low off the coast. Timing and location are incredibly important. The faster this secondary gets going, the better our chances for snow. As it is, this should deliver a decent front end snowfall, with warm air overrunning cold air at the surface and moderate to heavy precipitation spreading northward. We could be talking about 1" to 3" of water equivalent associated with this system. With not much antecedent cold in place, ice should not be a huge issue (as in last December), although a period of freezing rain in a transition from snow to rain is possible, with moderate ice accretion.

So in general, an intense storm is in store for the eastern half of the nation, but many details need to be ironed out. Stay tuned.