Watching the radar

Radar echoes are already working in across SE New York State. Much of this is not reaching the ground, however if you go back southwest, much Pennsylvania is now getting light snow. The 00z NAM has a faster onset, coinsiding with these radar observations, and I think Keene may be seeing moderate snow by 6am Wednesday, with an inch on the ground.

Another interesting map to watch is surface pressure and pressure falls. The low now over Missouri has fallen below 992mb, and is in the process of strengthening rapidly. Again, it will likely bottom out near 970mb over the Great Lakes tomorrow! However, if you avert your attention eastward, there is a second maximum in pressure falls now over the Outer Banks of North Carolina and a distinct "bagginess" to the isobars. This is definitely a sign of our secondary taking shape.

So overall, I think we're staying on track for at least a good 6" snowfall, possibly more. Again, I want to emphasize the 9am to noon period when I think conditions are really going to deteriorate. After noon, might have to deal with a bit of icy precipitation before things wind down completely.

Snowfall forecast for Keene: 6" to 9" -- I don't see much reason for change in either direction right now.

--- Snowday Outlook ---
I'm going to hold with the current percentages, although the earlier start time that is being suggested is definitely a plus. I think the chances look good for a cancellation.