Cold and dry ... and boring

Despite the historic nature of this winter for much of the northern hemisphere, portions of New England, particularly the Connecticut River Valley, have remained unscathed from major snowfall. For Keene, NH, the season snow total so far sits at 38", or about near the average for this time of year. However, we have yet to see any storm accumulations eclipse 10", continuing the streak that extends back to March 2007. Much of our January total comes from an assortment of 1" snowfalls.

Now, we watch the south get hammered for a second time this season. The first storm, on December 19th, dumped a swath of 1' to 3' from Virginia to New Jersey. This current storm will be passing even further south, squashed by an intense polar vortex displaced anomalously equatorward. This storm will paint a stripe of 12+" totals from Tennessee into southern Virginia.

Meanwhile, New England is in the freezer. A wave swinging around the aforementioned polar vortex delivered some snow squalls yesterday, even featuring thunder and lightning. Behind those squalls, northwest winds kicked in, gusting over 40mph in many places, and pushing arctic air toward the coast. Daytime temperatures today were steady in the teens, and will tumble below zero tonight.

So what does the future hold in store for us? Not too much for the next week. The polar vortex will retreat northward by Wednesday allowing for moderating temperatures. A weak wave originating in the northwestern US will slide eastward, possibly triggering some light overrunning snow across SNE. Next system comes at the end of next week. A short wave sharpening as it moves across the deep south will support intensifying surface low pressure. Model guidance currently drags the low northeastward up the coast. Obviously a lot of uncertainty at this range, and considering the track record of projected coastal storms this winter, a southerly solution is definitely favored.

In the long term, it looks like the Arctic Oscillation will tumble back into the basement for a while. The Euro and GFS both develop strong ridging up into Greenland and the polar regions. An unrelenting El Nino will continue to pump a strong subtropical jet through North America. So there should be no shortage of storminess in the nation, but the question remains whether these systems continue to be suppressed southward. Long range ensembles suggest some rise in heights over the southeast (day 10 and on) as a long wave trough drops in on west coast. This may help with at least some moderate overrunning events in the northeast.