Keene Weather: Winter Weather Outlook

Updated at 17:45EDT 2/23

Monday 2/26 - Tuesday 2/27
30%chance of a winter event
5% chance of a severe winter event

Saturday 2/31
25%chance of a winter event
5% chance of a severe winter event

None
0%chance of a delay
0% chance of a cancellation

Snowday probabilities are made by Sam Lillo, for SAU29 in Keene. These percentages should not be relied on outside of Cheshire County, NH. In addition, in Cheshire County, please do all school work on time depsite the issued forecast.

Latest Storm Summary

There are no winter storms occurring at this time.

1700EST Friday, February 23, 2007
2/22 storm recap

Precipitation began as a mix of wet snow and sleet and fell lightly through 6pm. By 7pm, the precipitation had changed to all snow and was coming down moderately. Half an inch of snow accumulation had occurred. Snow continued moderate to heavy at times through 11pm with 2.8 inches of accumulation. An additional .5" occurred as the snow tapered off through 1am. Total storm accumulation: 3.3", bringing Keene to a seasonal total so far of 25.7".

Temperatures fell as this storm passed through so the last 2 inches is fluffy, light, dry snow. However, the snow on the bottom is still very wet. Our current snowpack is 12 inches with 10 inches of wet and two inches of dry. The dry snow will likely settle and wetten tomorrow, so count on a snowpack of 11 inches tomorrow.

Our next storm threat is this Monday and will last through Tuesday, with a second storm pulling through on Wednesday. This series of storms will result in an overall light snowfall in the area.

Another storm will affect us next weekend and could be potentially larger and stronger.

1700EST Wednesday, February 21, 2007
Snow - moderate - tomorrow

I've been under the weather lately so I havent updated the site in a while. I'll start updating here, but probably wont begin posting on the main page until vacation next week when Im more rested.

Anyway, we have another snow event on our hands. The PNA ridge has broken down so warmer temperatures in association with a building SE ridge has pushed the high temperatures to 40 degrees for the first time since mid January (official stats later) and in addition has taken a solid 5 inches out of the snowpack. We will get a bit back tomorrow as a Norlun low rapidly intensifies off the New England coast and wraps around enough moisture for at least .3 to .6 QPFs across SNE. While the precipitation will be mainly rain and ice in CT, RI and SE MA, temperatures will be cold enough for all snow here in SW NH where accumulations of 2 to 3 inches is possible. The timing of the event is not favored for any delay or cancellation on Thursday and I very much doubt an early dismissal, but a delay Friday is not out of the question.

1200EST Sunday, February 18, 2007
Light snow showers today

A dusting has accumulated so far in Keene, but only very light snow showers or flurries will continue through this evening. Expect no more than half an inch of snow through tonight. Cape Cod and the islands could pick up 2 to 4 inches as the storm heads east of the region.

Pattern changes: Winters strong hold over the east coast the past 3 weeks will weaken as an overall pattern change brings a trough over the west coast and encourages the building of a ridge in the southeast. High temperatures will rise into the 30's and 40's (0 - 10 above average) over the last week of February. Our last frigid day will be on Monday behind the clipper system when highs will be in the teens and wind chills below zero.

1500EST Friday, February 16, 2007
Light snow event Sunday

A clipper system with minimal to moderate amounts of moisture will swing through on Sunday. This could give us 1 to 2 inches of snowfall. First map will be out tomorrow morning.

Snowfall forecast for 00z Sunday through 12z Monday for Keene, NH (issued at 1450 2/16): 1" - 2"

Postscript: I still have to issue the postmortem report on the Valentine's Day Blizzard. I probably won't have enough time tonight, but I'll try to get it out tomorrow morning.

1500EST Thursday, February 15, 2007
Blizzard of 2007 Pictures

2045EST Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Cancellations -- Thursday???

All of todays cancellations have been removed from the WMUR list leaving 61 currently issued cancellations/delays for tomorrow.

1800EST Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Cancellations -- Thursday???

Maybe a delay - I've upped my percentages to 60%. No chance of a snowday tomorrow - 10% for that slight probability.

Already many areas in NH have closed for tomorrow.

Storm analysis plus pictures will be posted tomorrow.

900EST Wednesday, February 14, 2007
BLIZZARD WARNING

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
858 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007

MAZ002-003-008-009-NHZ011-142200-
/O.CON.KBOX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070215T0500Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-CHESHIRE NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...JAFFREY...KEENE
858 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HOURLY
SNOWFALL RATES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH QUITE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND THE INCREASING WINDS WILL WORK IN
CONCERT TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL
FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO UNDER A QUARTER MILE. THIS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DIFFICULT AT BEST...AND NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN END BY
MIDNIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1 TO 2 FEET...WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR UPDATED INFORMATION...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.  VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.  THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS MAY
BECOME LOST OR DISORIENTED...SO PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE
ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS.

$$

2200EST Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Cancellations

Already in New Hampshire, 69 cancellations for tomorrow have been entered in at the WMUR site. The site updates every 5 minutes, and the number of cancellations have been going up every time. Below is a map of the cancellations at the time I updated. Keene usually is the 100th to 150th to cancel. The Keene Sentinel reported that the super intendent may cancel this evening - something that hasnt been done in a while.

1530EST Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Westerward shifting

The models continue to trend slowly westward. We dont want that anymore! Now, even here in Keene, we may have to deal with a change to sleet tomorrow afternoon. In addition, highest QPF will be further west. So right now, it looks like we have a good shot at 1.25" to 1.5" QPF, but with snow to water ratios closer to 9 or 10. So even though my final official forecast will remain at 16 to 22 (for analysis on accuracy), I'll lower my current forecast to 12 to 18 inches.

What we need to watch is the pressure drops from the low entering the lower OV, and the developing coastal low. If the coastal can strengthen further, which a few meteorologists think is more possible, then the largest accumulations (around two feet) will likely shift to our area.
I've lowered percentage chance for a snowday tomorrow to 90% (still expecting one though).
Also, I'll add Thursday to the snowday potential (for a delay) since winds and light snow could continue through Wednesday Night into early Thursday Morning.

630EST Tuesday, February 13, 2007
FINAL FORECAST

Final snowfall forecast for Keene, NH for 00z Tuesday 2/13 through 12z Thursday 2/15 (Issued at 0630 2/13): 16 to 22 inches

630EST Tuesday, February 13, 2007
HEAVY SNOW WARNING

Heavy Snow Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
448 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

CTZ002-003-MAZ002>004-008>011-026-NHZ011-012-015-131800-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0002.070213T2300Z-070215T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.HS.W.0001.070214T0500Z-070215T0500Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...
CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...
AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...
WEARE
448 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HEAVY SNOW
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING TUESDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING RUSH HOUR. IN FACT...SNOW MAY BE FALLING AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIMITING VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER
MILE AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE HEAVY AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE WINDS INCREASE. BOTH THE MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES
ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE TREACHEROUS.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND MONADNOCKS...WHERE 15 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 FEET. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING AREA WILL
RANGE FROM 8 TO 15 INCHES.

BLOWING A DRIFTING SNOW WILL WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON.

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD OR FOR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD.  TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL
TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR
UNTREATED SURFACES.

$$

1830EST Monday, February 12, 2007
Nowcasting time

Really it started this morning, but I didnt have a chance to post. Anyway, while model watching should still continue considering the prolonged period of disagreement, nowcasting time has begun. We have two low pressure areas to watch. The first one is currently located south of the Texas panhandle. The second one is located about 400 miles east of Miami. The first low we are looking for a more southerly movement to evolve, as the current thought is for this storm to turn northward into central PA. This would bring warmer air into SNE and change precipitation to ice and rain. Although this will not happen in Keene, the northerly track will also move the heaviest precipitation west of us. The second low would be nice to have further north and phase with the first low, which essentially would create an all out historical blizzard. But the current projected track of this low isnt too bad for us anyway.

This map will update every three hours automatically:

1400EST Monday, February 12, 2007
WINTER STORM WATCH UPDATE

NWS UPGRADES TO 8 TO 15 INCHES PLUS ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS BEHIND STORM:

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1130 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>016-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001-130030-
/O.CON.KBOX.WS.A.0002.070213T2300Z-070215T1100Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...
MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD
1130 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THIS WATCH INCLUDES NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND...
MASSACHUSETTS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO THE ROUTE 128
CORRIDOR INCLUDING BOSTON...AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY EVENING IN THE CONNECTICUT
VALLEY AND SPREAD TO THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. IN FACT...SNOW MAY BE FALLING AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HOWEVER...WARMER MID LEVEL AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE
THE SNOW TO CHANGE TO SLEET GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
MANCHESTER NEW HAMPSHIRE TO AN ORANGE MASSACHUSETTS LINE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN FOR A TIME ON
THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST.

COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS WINDS TURN NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE
ANY AREAS THAT CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST...TO CHANGE TO SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN. THIS INCLUDES THE BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...WHERE
THERE MAY BE A FLASH FREEZE AS TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY BELOW
FREEZING. THE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ALL THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. THERE MAY BE SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO BE HIGHEST ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND MONADNOCKS...WHERE AS MUCH
AS 8 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL. TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND AND THE
BOSTON METRO AREA BEFORE ANY CHANGE OVER. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY EVENING.

KEEP IN MIND THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
STORM. IF IT ENDS UP BEING FARTHER OFFSHORE...IT WOULD PLACE THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS FARTHER TO THE EAST. A TRACK CLOSER TO
THE COAST WOULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS AS MORE RAIN AND
SLEET WOULD OCCUR.

THIS WINTER HAS CERTAINLY FEATURED A LACK OF SNOWFALL...AND AS A
RESULT...MANY PEOPLE HAVE NOT BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO DRIVING IN
HARSH WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. TAKE TIME NOW TO MAKE SURE YOUR
VEHICLE IS PREPARED. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR UPDATED INFORMATION...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON.

$$

FRANK

1200EST Monday, February 12, 2007
Confidence levels

Yeah Im in school right now, but it's lunch time.

Anyway
confidence levels:
All snow, no mix: 95%
>1.00" water equivalent: 85%
>2.00" water equivalent: 30%
>12:1 snow to water ratios: 65%
>1.0" snow accumulation: 95%
>6.0" snow accumulation: 85%
>12.0" snow accumulation: 75%
>18.0" snow accumulation: 60%
>24.0" snow accumulation: 35%

Dropping snow accumulation forecast for Keene, NH for 12z Tuesday through 12z Thursday (issued at 1200 2/12): 12 to 18 inches.

Energy in the GOM has been underestimated by the models. This could mean if it phases with the northern jet, even more moisture and snowfall. However, it could also pull moisture away if it goes east. Another variable in the forecast.

600EST Monday, February 12, 2007
WINTER STORM WATCH

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
324 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>016-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001-121630-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0002.070213T2300Z-070215T1100Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...
MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD
324 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WATCH INCLUDES NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND...
MASSACHUSETTS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO THE ROUTE
128 CORRIDOR INCLUDING BOSTON...AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY EVENING IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
AND SPREAD TO THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND
SHOULD BECOME HEAVY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

WARMER AIR MOVING IN OFF THE OCEAN WILL CAUSE THE SNOW TO MIX
WITH... OR BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SLEET AS FAR INLAND AS
HARTFORD...WORCESTER AND MANCHESTER.

A CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE COMBINATION
OF GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING SNOW COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO BE HIGHEST ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND MONADNOCKS...WHERE AS MUCH AS 8 TO
12 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL. TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND AND THE BOSTON
METRO AREA.

KEEP IN MIND THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
STORM. IF IT ENDS UP BEING FARTHER OFFSHORE...IT WOULD PLACE THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS FARTHER TO THE EAST. A TRACK CLOSER TO THE
COAST WOULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS AS MORE RAIN AND SLEET
WOULD OCCUR.

THIS WINTER HAS CERTAINLY FEATURED A LACK OF SNOWFALL...AND AS A
RESULT...MANY PEOPLE HAVE NOT BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO DRIVING IN HARSH
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. TAKE TIME NOW TO MAKE SURE YOUR VEHICLE
IS PREPARED. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON.

$$

JWD

2200EST Sunday, February 11, 2007
Fourth forecast for storm

With numeric accumulation forecast:

Snowfall forecast for Keene for 12z Tuesday through 12z Thursday (issued at 2200 2/11): 14 to 20 inches.

Postscript: The NWS has expressed in an updated portion of the AFD that a watch of some sort will likely be issued by the mid shift tonight or tomorrow morning. The models are beginning to close on a consensus for the track of the storm.