Severe Weather Outlook

Updated at 18:30EDT 12/20

Short term Severe threat Saturday 12/23 0%chance of thunderstorms 10% chance of severe weather

Long term Severe threat None 0%chance of thunderstorms 0% chance of severe weather

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Latest Storm Reports

There is no severe weather occurring at this time

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Saturday, December 16, 2006; 10:15EDT
Heavy rain a possibility on Saturday


A significant storm system currently knocking on Midwesterner's doors with snow and wind, will move into our region from the west. Of course since it is tapping heat from the south, we'll be talking about rain on Saturday during the brunt of the storm. While flooding is not a concern at this time, poor-drainage street flooding is a possibility during any periods of heavier rain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
250 PM EST WED DEC 20 2006

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED WILL BE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS.  IT SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 
FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL INDUCE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND IN TURN 
PRODUCE MID LEVEL LIFT.  RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST 
TO EAST NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY BE TRAPPED IN 
THE VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHWEST NH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF 
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.  HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 
SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO MAKE THIS BRIEF IF IT 
HAPPENS AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO 
THE REGION SATURDAY.  WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE 
GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLES PRETTY MUCH AGREE ON 0.75 TO 
1.50 INCHES OF RAIN.  NAM MODEL APPEARS TO SLOW WHEN COMPARED TO THE 
REST OF THE DATA.  WHILE NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED...TYPICAL POOR 
DRAINAGE NUISANCE STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.  WILL GO A FEW 
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...PARTICULARLY ON THE COAST AS 
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRY TO MIX OUT INVERSION A 
BIT.  WILL GO FOR HIGHS IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE ALONG THE COASTAL 
PLAIN WITH READINGS BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ACROSS THE DISTANT INTERIOR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT.  
LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE OUTLINED AREAS...WITH 40 
TO 45 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

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Saturday, December 16, 2006; 10:15EDT
Rain, no storms, for Monday

The pattern changing storm is coming up on Monday into Tuesday. It appears now that no severe weather will be associated with this system as the amount of instability will be far too low even for any virga. Rain will fall Monday afternoon, and we still should monitor the possibility for some areas of intense rainfall out ahead of the front.
Otherwise, it appears a winter regime will hold strong through the long term leaving us with no severe weather potentials to talk of.

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SPC Convective Outlooks

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