---------------------------------------------------------------
FEBRUARY 14, 2007
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1500EST Thursday, February 15, 2007
Blizzard of 2007 Pictures
900EST Wednesday, February 14, 2007
BLIZZARD WARNING
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
858 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007
MAZ002-003-008-009-NHZ011-142200-
/O.CON.KBOX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070215T0500Z/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-CHESHIRE NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...JAFFREY...KEENE
858 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007
...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...
A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. HOURLY
SNOWFALL RATES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH QUITE LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND THE INCREASING WINDS WILL WORK IN
CONCERT TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. VISIBILITIES WILL
FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO UNDER A QUARTER MILE. THIS WILL MAKE
TRAVEL DIFFICULT AT BEST...AND NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES.
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN END BY
MIDNIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1 TO 2 FEET...WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR UPDATED INFORMATION...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAUNTON WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON
A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS MAY
BECOME LOST OR DISORIENTED...SO PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE
ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS.
$$
1530EST Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Westerward shifting
The models continue to trend slowly westward. We dont want that anymore! Now, even here in Keene, we may have to deal with a change to sleet tomorrow afternoon. In addition, highest QPF will be further west. So right now, it looks like we have a good shot at 1.25" to 1.5" QPF, but with snow to water ratios closer to 9 or 10. So even though my final official forecast will remain at 16 to 22 (for analysis on accuracy), I'll lower my current forecast to 12 to 18 inches.
What we need to watch is the pressure drops from the low entering the lower OV, and the developing coastal low. If the coastal can strengthen further, which a few meteorologists think is more possible, then the largest accumulations (around two feet) will likely shift to our area.
I've lowered percentage chance for a snowday tomorrow to 90% (still expecting one though).
Also, I'll add Thursday to the snowday potential (for a delay) since winds and light snow could continue through Wednesday Night into early Thursday Morning.
630EST Tuesday, February 13, 2007
FINAL FORECAST
Final snowfall forecast for Keene, NH for 00z Tuesday 2/13 through 12z Thursday 2/15 (Issued at 0630 2/13): 16 to 22 inches
630EST Tuesday, February 13, 2007
HEAVY SNOW WARNING
Heavy Snow Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
448 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007
CTZ002-003-MAZ002>004-008>011-026-NHZ011-012-015-131800-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0002.070213T2300Z-070215T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.HS.W.0001.070214T0500Z-070215T0500Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...
CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...
AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...
WEARE
448 AM EST TUE FEB 13 2007
...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HEAVY SNOW
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS WESTERN CONNECTICUT...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING TUESDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WEDNESDAY
MORNING RUSH HOUR. IN FACT...SNOW MAY BE FALLING AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIMITING VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER
MILE AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE HEAVY AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE WINDS INCREASE. BOTH THE MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES
ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE TREACHEROUS.
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BY THE TIME THE
SNOW ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES AND MONADNOCKS...WHERE 15 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 FEET. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING AREA WILL
RANGE FROM 8 TO 15 INCHES.
BLOWING A DRIFTING SNOW WILL WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON.
A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD OR FOR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL
TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR
UNTREATED SURFACES.
$$
1200EST Monday, February 12, 2007
Confidence levels
Yeah Im in school right now, but it's lunch time.
Anyway
confidence levels:
All snow, no mix: 95%
>1.00" water equivalent: 85%
>2.00" water equivalent: 30%
>12:1 snow to water ratios: 65%
>1.0" snow accumulation: 95%
>6.0" snow accumulation: 85%
>12.0" snow accumulation: 75%
>18.0" snow accumulation: 60%
>24.0" snow accumulation: 35%
Dropping snow accumulation forecast for Keene, NH for 12z Tuesday through 12z Thursday (issued at 1200 2/12): 12 to 18 inches.
Energy in the GOM has been underestimated by the models. This could mean if it phases with the northern jet, even more moisture and snowfall. However, it could also pull moisture away if it goes east. Another variable in the forecast.
600EST Monday, February 12, 2007
WINTER STORM WATCH
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
324 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>016-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001-121630-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0002.070213T2300Z-070215T1100Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...
MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD
324 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WATCH INCLUDES NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND...
MASSACHUSETTS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES TO THE ROUTE
128 CORRIDOR INCLUDING BOSTON...AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY EVENING IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY
AND SPREAD TO THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND
SHOULD BECOME HEAVY BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
WARMER AIR MOVING IN OFF THE OCEAN WILL CAUSE THE SNOW TO MIX
WITH... OR BRIEFLY CHANGE TO SLEET AS FAR INLAND AS
HARTFORD...WORCESTER AND MANCHESTER.
A CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE COMBINATION
OF GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING SNOW COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE COAST.
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO BE HIGHEST ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND MONADNOCKS...WHERE AS MUCH AS 8 TO
12 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL. TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND AND THE BOSTON
METRO AREA.
KEEP IN MIND THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
STORM. IF IT ENDS UP BEING FARTHER OFFSHORE...IT WOULD PLACE THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS FARTHER TO THE EAST. A TRACK CLOSER TO THE
COAST WOULD RESULT IN LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS AS MORE RAIN AND SLEET
WOULD OCCUR.
THIS WINTER HAS CERTAINLY FEATURED A LACK OF SNOWFALL...AND AS A
RESULT...MANY PEOPLE HAVE NOT BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO DRIVING IN HARSH
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS. TAKE TIME NOW TO MAKE SURE YOUR VEHICLE
IS PREPARED. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION...OR VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON.
$$
JWD
2200EST Sunday, February 11, 2007
Fourth forecast for storm
With numeric accumulation forecast:
Snowfall forecast for Keene for 12z Tuesday through 12z Thursday (issued at 2200 2/11): 14 to 20 inches.
Postscript: The NWS has expressed in an updated portion of the AFD that a watch of some sort will likely be issued by the mid shift tonight or tomorrow morning. The models are beginning to close on a consensus for the track of the storm.
1800EST Sunday, February 11, 2007
BOX AFD: Very heavy snow
000
FXUS61 KBOX 112042 AAA
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
341 PM EST SUN FEB 11 2007...UPDATED SHORT TERM
...POWERFUL NOREASTER WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY
SNOW...STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST ALONG WITH VERY HIGH SEAS FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DAY 2 OF SEVERAL LOCATIONS /MAINLY LOWER ELEVATIONS/ EXPERIENCING
HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING. INTERESTING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS WERE JUST AS COOL OR COOLER THAN HFD/PVD/BOS THIS AFTERNOON.
PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY/SATELLITE SST DATA AND TIDE
GAGES SOME ICE HAS FORMED NEAR SHORE OF CAPE COD BAY/NANTUCKET
SOUND/MVY SOUND AND BUZZARDS BAY. THUS...KEEPING COASTAL LOCATIONS
JUST AS COLD OR SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE MAINLAND.
TONIGHT...
QUIET NIGHT COMING UP WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF
NEXT NORTHERN STREAM JET IMPULSE. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION
OF SOME CLOUDINESS AND PREFRONTAL WINDS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT. PREDICTED MORNING LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE SEASONABLY COLD RANGE.
MONDAY...
NORTHERN STREAM JET IMPULSE RACES ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SO EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH JUST SOME CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON MAXES TOPPING OUT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S OVER THE HILLY
TERRAIN. THESE VALUES ARE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MON NIGHT...
NORTHERN STREAM JET IMPULSE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS GULF OF ME AND
NOVA SCOTIA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING...USHERING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH TEENS IN THE URBAN AREAS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND MON NIGHT
WILL GENERATE WIND CHILLS OF ZERO TO MINUS 15.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z MODELS ARE NOW IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT THAT A POWERFUL NOREASTER
WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS TO
THE COAST ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE
MAIN THING TO IRON OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY IS THE EXACT STORM TRACK.
THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT HOW MUCH WARM AIR IS DRAWN IN OFF THE OCEAN
AND WHICH LOCATIONS CHANGE TO RAIN/SLEET.
THE 12Z GFS/NAM/CANADIAN MODELS ARE FORECASTING MORE OF AN INLAND
TRACK...GENERALLY TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM BOSTON
TO PROVIDENCE. HOWEVER...WE NOTED THAT THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES WERE
FURTHER EAST TRACKING THE STORM NEAR NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER-CAPE.
THE UKMET/ECMWF ALSO FAVORED MORE OF THE EASTERLY TRACK FAVORED BY
THE GFS ENSEMBLES. WE FELT SINCE THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES
ALONG WITH THE UKMET/ECMWF TRACKED THE STORM NEAR THE OUTER-CAPE
THAT WAS THE BEST OPTION TO FOLLOW RIGHT NOW. ALSO...WITH A SHOT OF
VERY COLD AIR COMING DOWN IT MAY BE HARD FOR THE STORM TO TRACK THAT
FAR NORTHWEST. WITH THAT BEING SAID...WE CAN NOT DISMISS THE MORE
INLAND TRACK OF THE NAM/GFS/CANADIAN EVEN THOUGH WE ARE NOT FAVORING
THEM AT THE TIME. THIS WOULD BRING MORE OF A WET AND WARMER
SOLUTION THAN WHAT WE ARE FORECASTING WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WE EXPECT SNOW TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND BEGINS OVER RIDES THE COLD DOME
AT THE SURFACE. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
BEGINS TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...PULLING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN ON WEDNESDAY BELOW
980 MB AS IT TRACKS UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BASED ON OUR
FORECAST OF FOLLOWING THE GFS ENSEMBLES...WE DO THINK ENOUGH WARM
AIR WILL COME IN OFF THE ATLANTIC TO CHANGE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MA...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS TO RAIN FOR A TIME. WOULD SUSPECT
THAT EVEN BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE WOULD CHANGE TO SLEET OR RAIN FOR A
TIME WITH THE MID LEVEL WARMING...BUT CERTAINLY NOT SET IN STONE.
ALSO...CONCERNED ABOUT THE MID LEVEL WARMING ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
THE MA PIKE COULD TURN SOME LOCATIONS TO SLEET EVEN WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING.
REGARDLESS...MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. IN FACT...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME LOCATIONS
TO SEE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW. HOWEVER...THIS IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE
HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT A PREMATURE CHANGE TO SLEET BASED ON THE
WARMING MID LEVELS SOUTH OF THE MA PIKE ALONG WITH THE UNCERTAIN
TRACK. WHAT EVER HAPPENS...BASED ON THE FORECASTED TRACK WE
PROBABLY WILL SEE LOCATIONS THAT DUE MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
RAIN/SLEET CHANGE BACK TO SNOW AS THE LOW BOMBS OUT. THERE STILL
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION...AS A NICE COMMA HEAD COULD FORM AND PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...STRONG WINDS ARE A BIG CONCERN ON THE COAST. THERE IS A
VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IF NOT HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. ALSO...MAY SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BUT OUR
HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OCCURS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SEAS
WILL PROBABLY NOT BE BUILT UP ENOUGH BY THAT TIME TO CAUSE ANY MAJOR
PROBLEMS. THERE IS ANOTHER HIGH TIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT ITS ONLY
8.3 FEET SO EVEN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FEET...NOT EXPECTING
MORE THAN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
ALL IN ALL...WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT A POWERFUL NOREASTER WILL IMPACT
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE
UNCERTAIN ON THE EXACT TRACK AND THE AREA THAT WILL CHANGE TO
RAIN/SLEET FOR A TIME. EVEN THOUGH WE FOLLOWED THE MORE EASTERN
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...WE CAN NOT DISMISS THE NAM/CANADIAN/AND
OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH INDICATE A WARMER/WETTER SOLUTIONS THEN WHAT
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING. ITS TOO EARLY FOR A WATCH SINCE THE
SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNTIL THE 2ND PART OF THE 5TH PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE WITH A STRONGLY WORDED SPS.
VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE STORM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW -20C. WENT BELOW MEX
GUIDANCE AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH SNOW COVER.
MAY SEE A BIT OF A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
FLOW ATTEMPTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. ALSO...WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SCT TO
BKN 2500-3000FT CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHWEST WIND BOUNDARY LAYER WIND COMBINED
WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES...GENERATING SOME OCEAN EFFECT
STRATO-CUMULUS
CLOUDS. AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS
WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE...YIELDING VFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 25 KT TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS...THEN BECOME WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS EASE A BIT SOUTH
COAST MON...HOWEVER 25 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN MA WATERS.
THEN NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 KT BECOME WIDESPREAD MON NIGHT BEHIND
COLD FRONT.
IN THE LONG TERM...A POWERFUL NOREASTER WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
15 TO 20 FOOT SEAS AND STORM FORCE WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL RE-ISSUE THE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT AS THIS STORM
WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY. OTHERWISE...GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE AT TIMES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
STORM.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ231-250-254.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...NOCERA
MARINE...NOCERA/FRANK
1500EST Sunday, February 11, 2007
NWS continues to hype storm
The evening shift has raised POPs to 100% for Wednesday which is huge considering it is still 60 hours out. Enhanced wording now includes "light snow accumulations possible" Tuesday Night, "heavy snow accumulations possible" Wednesday, and "moderate snow accumulations possible" Wednesday Night. Based on the current model consensus and NWS reactions, it isnt out of the realm of possibility for two snowdays in a row (Wed and Thu). I have raised snowday probabilities to 50% for Wednesday.
1500EST Sunday, February 11, 2007
Third forecast map
A forecast map including numeric forecast accumulations will be issued later tonight or on Monday.
Latest forecast:
GFS has shifted westward. precipitation type issues are moving into SNE, not here in Keene yet. Looks like a very intense storm by all model forecasts. Stay tuned for later updates!
730EST Sunday, February 11, 2007
Latest BOX AFD
000
FXUS61 KBOX 110907
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
407 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2007
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
11/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THEIR OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. BUT START TO DIFFER IN THE DETAILS BY LATE MONDAY. 10/21Z
SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTED THE GFS PRETTY WELL. AS HPC POINTED
OUT...THIS IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE 2/3 OF THE SREF MEMBERS ARE NAM/ETA
BASED. SO...USED THE GFS TO TWEAK PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.
NOT THAT MUCH NEEDED CHANGING. HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NC COAST BY TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOW
PRESSURE WEST OF JAMES BAY EARLY THIS MORNING...SHOULD MOVE INTO
QUEBEC BY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY.
LIKED THE NEW GRIDDED MOS PRODUCT WE HAVE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND USED
IT TO TWEAK PREVIOUS FORECAST TEMPERATURES. THIS GRIDDED MOS IS BASED
OFF THE GFS EQUATIONS...AND ENSEMBLES THE PRESENT AND PREVIOUS RUN.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AND TUE...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR PLENTY OF COLD AIR AS COASTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
MIDWEEK.
WHILE WE STILL HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY 00Z MODELS...
ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS IS NARROWING AND WE ARE BECOMING MORE
CONFIDENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM LATE TUE INTO EARLY THU.
DIFFERENCE IN THESE SOLUTIONS STILL LIES WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE
UPPER FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. ONE CAMP REPRESENTED BY NAM...ECMWF
AND UKMET ALLOWS FOR SOME OF THIS ENERGY TO BREAK OFF AND INTERACT
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...SHARPENING FLOW ALONG E COAST AND
TAKING LOW INSIDE 40/70 BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL
WARMER SOLUTION WITH RAIN/WIND ALONG COAST AND HEAVIER SNOWS FOCUSED
ACROSS INTERIOR. OTHER CAMP REPRESENTED BY GFS...CANADIAN AND SREF
MEAN MAINTAINS MORE SEPARATION BETWEEN TWO STREAMS AND ALLOWS FOR
SOMEWHAT FLATTER FLOW...WHICH ALLOWS COASTAL LOW TO PASS A BIT
FARTHER OFFSHORE EITHER OVER OR JUST OUTSIDE 40/70. THIS COLDER
SOLUTION RESULTS IN MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWS AND STRONG WINDS FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
COORDINATION WITH HPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES SUGGESTS MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION SHOWN BY GFS IS MORE LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN FACT IT HAS SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH IS
SLOWER TO BRING UPPER TROUGH INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HAS LESS
RIDGING OVER REGION.
THAT SAID...WE CERTAINLY ARE NOT YET CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO JUMP
COMPLETELY ONTO 00Z GFS SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS SNOWSTORM OF ALMOST
EPIC PROPORTIONS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN FACT IF IT WERE TO
VERIFY...WE WOULD BE MEASURING SNOW IN FEET OVER MOST OF REGION AND
ALSO BE DEALING WITH 60-70 MPH WINDS ON COASTAL PLAIN AS SYSTEM
UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING JUST OFFSHORE. WHILE IT DOES REMAIN WITHIN
REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN THAT RAPIDLY AND BRING
A REAL THREAT OF SNOW AND HIGH WINDS...WE ARE STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY
AND NEED TO WORK OUT DETAILS ONCE PROJECTED TRACK BECOMES MORE
CERTAIN. WE DO THINK FUTURE RUNS WILL SHOW SOME VARIABILITY IN TRACK
AND AMOUNT OF DEEPENING...THOUGH IT SHOULD END UP SOMEWHERE NEAR
40/70.
AS A RESULT...WE DO THINK IT IS TIME TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS OF THE
POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF THIS STORM VIA SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND
WILL DO SO THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW AND POTENTIAL
STRONG WINDS...WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED WITH POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL
FLOODING DESPITE RELATIVELY ASTRONOMICALLY LOW TIDES. COMBINATION OF
STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS MAY BE ABLE TO
COMPENSATE FOR THAT.
IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE NOT HAD TO DEAL WITH A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SO FAR THIS SEASON...AND IMPACT OF THIS
STORM MAY BE GREATER THAN WHAT WE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT FOR MID
FEBRUARY...ESPECIALLY SINCE MANY PEOPLE HAVE NOT HAD TO REALLY USE
THEIR WINTER DRIVING SKILLS YET!
&&
.AVIATION /09Z-06Z/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECTING TO SEE A SCT-BKN
DECK OF MID OR HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY REPORTS INDICATE SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WATERS RIGHT NOW. AS A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NC COAST
TONIGHT...AND A LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC...EXPECTING WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP WITH TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD REALLY TIGHTEN UP BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT MONDAY...AND REMAIN SO WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING OUT
ACROSS THE WATERS BEHIND IT. HAVE POSTED ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
IN LONGER TERM MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...MAIN CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT OCEAN STORM IN WED TO THU TIME FRAME...AS IT FORMS OFF
CAROLINAS AND TRACKS NE. WHILE THERE ARE STILL LARGE DIFFERENCES
AMONG MODELS AS TO WHERE IT WILL TRACK...WITH ENVELOPE OF POSSIBLE
TRACKS RANGING FROM OVER SE NEW ENGLAND TO WELL OUTSIDE 40/70
BENCHMARK...WE ARE FOLLOWING GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH TAKE IT VERY
CLOSE TO 40/70 LATE WED.
IF WE TOOK GFS AT FACE VALUE...IT WOULD BRING STORM FORCE WINDS TO
ALL WATERS LATE WED INTO THU AS SYSTEM UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING OFF
CAPE COD. WE ARE NOT READY TO BUY INTO SUCH STRENGTHENING JUST
YET... BUT WE ARE CERTAINLY BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT THAT STRONG GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY. AS A RESULT WE CAPPED WINDS AT 45KT FOR
NOW...AND LATER FORECASTS MAY VERY WELL NEED TO ADJUST THEM HIGHER
INTO STORM FORCE.
IN ADDITION TO STRONG WINDS...THIS STORM HAS POTENTIAL TO POSE
SEVERAL OTHER HAZARDS TO MARINERS INCLUDING RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS AS
HIGH AS 20 FT. WE WILL UPDATE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THESE THREATS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ255.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...BELK
MARINE...BELK/JWD
1730EST Saturday, February 10, 2007
Second call for 2/12- 2/15 event
I have shifted my forecast track northward by about 100 miles in accordance with a northward trending model guidence as well as a growing confidence in the northern model solution from the NWS. The NWS support expressed in the evening AFD is huge. While confidence in an intense winter storm has been expressed by the NWS offices in the mid Atlantic region, the Northeast NWS discos have until now been bleak.
At this point, the possible tracks of this storm is still wide spread. The 18z run of the GFS this afternoon has not budged much at all, and still only delivers a glancing blow to SE New England. The Euro has support from the UKMET, the DGEX, the JMA, and the MM5 models, which although should never been relied on alone, gives more back up to the Euro solution. The HPC continues to favor the GFS solution.
Precipitation type: I am convinced that SW NH and NW MA will not have to worry above mixing precipitation or for that matter wet snow. Cold high pressure to our northwest and rapid deepening of the offshore low will create a flow of arctic air that will send most of western New England into the ice box for Tuesday Night through the end of next week. Precipitation type may be a factor for parts of SE New England where onshore flow will send temperatures above freezing. Moderate snow accumulations will still be possible... if not likely across the Cape. There may be some icing problems, but the main ice area will be south of New England. Temperature variability will likely be extremely high 20 to 60 miles inland as the oceanic influence hits the strong flow of arctic air from the north and northwest. So snow accumulations could vary significantly in these areas and will be hard to predict until within 24 to 48 hours within the start of the storm.
2030EST Friday, February 9, 2007
First call for 2/12- 2/15 event
Pretty much leaving most possibilities open. In the event that the low track was identical to what my map shows, Keene would probably not get any accumulation at all due to a sharp cut off which is usually a characteristic of these types of storm. At this point I have Keene, NH in the "light" zone. I define light in this case as 1" - 4", moderate as 4" - 12", and heavy as >12". Some areas in the "heavy" region could near two feet of snow.
655EST Wednesday, February 7, 2007
Thursday 2/15
Most of the long term models have jumped on the bandwagon, however the details of the storm are still spread out. Right now, it appears we will be talking more of a Mid Atlantic threat, and less in New England... still have a while to talk about it though.
I'll try to make a post in the home page later this afternoon.
655EST Tuesday, February 6, 2007
Cold, few short term threats
Summary of long term events:
Saturday 2/10 - A no go. Short wave wont have much moisture, maybe enough for some flurries
Thursday 2/15 - The one that I've watched for a couple weeks now. Has good potential and is gaining support from the models.
---------------------------------------------------------------
FEBRUARY 2, 2007
---------------------------------------------------------------
955EST Saturday, February 3, 2007
More pictures
925EST Saturday, February 3, 2007
4.4 inches - pictures
2125EST Friday, February 2, 2007
3 inches and counting - pictures
2025EST Friday, February 2, 2007
Snow falling in earnest
Summary on the event in the main page...
Right now, it is 28.4F in Keene. Penny to quarter size flakes are falling, and accumulating steady. So far 1.2" has fallen, making this the largest storm of the season so far (sad, I know). However, it is still falling, and the latest radar images indicate we still have a solid 4 to 6 hours of snow left. I'll raise my belatedly increased snowfall forecast to 3" - 5". The heaviest accumulations will be just to our north and east where the best banding will occur.
1825EST Friday, February 2, 2007
NWS big increase in snowfall forecast
The zone and point forecasts have increased the snowfall forecast significantly! Now up to 2 to 4 inches. I'll stay conservative for now with 1.5" - 3".
Snow has begun to fall in Keene as the northern storm approaches from the west. The storm has strengthened significantly more than previously expected and we may see a few moments of heavy snow later tonight. Snow will wind down by tomorrow morning.
625EST Friday, February 2, 2007
Northern stream hope
The northern storm associated with this weather complex has gained strength over the Great Lakes and has developed a band of snow across the Ohio River Valley. With the surface flow from the southern storm coming in, we have good lift in the area, enough to support light to moderate snow this evening and tonight. With respect to this storm, I'll raise my accumulation forecast to .5" - 1.5". No changes to the forecast map are necessary except maybe a 100mi northward shift of the D- 1" area in New England. Forecast for SNE looks good. Coastal storm has spread precipitation over the Cape and Islands as well as RI, southern CT and SE MA. There is a slight chance that the outer fringes may affect us this morning, and for that reason, I'll include a slight chance of snow this morning but accumulations no more than a dusting.
1825EST Thursday, February 1, 2007
Another disapointment
They just keep on coming...
By the way, with our 2.6 inches of snow on the season so far at the end of January, we have broken the record (along with almost every other city in SNE) for the least snowfall through this period.
Final Forecast:
Snowfall forecast for Keene, NH for 06z Friday through 06z Saturday -issued at 2000 2/1: Dusting - 1".
Also, the M/A region is probably overdone a bit with the too much lean on the northern stream storm.
The only hope that exists now for snow accumulation is lake effect behind the storm.
625EST Thursday, February 1, 2007
NWS morning shift products
NWS accumulation forecast for Friday: 1" - 3"
BOX AFD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
450 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE FRI NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR IN RI AND MA...INCLUDING MUCH OF INTERIOR CT...
TODAY...
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS MORNING. WIND FIELDS ALOFT INDICATE
MID LEVEL JET CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEST
THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SOMEWHAT DRY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS...WHERE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE OCEAN MAY SUFFICIENTLY SATURATE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FOR PRECIPITATION ALOFT TO REACH THE SURFACE. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECTING JUST CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES.
AS FOR PTYPE...COLD ALOFT TO SUPPORT SNOW...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST WINDS
BLOWING ACROSS WATER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WILL
LIKELY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER FOR A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH QPF AS FORCING IS WEAK AND GIVEN RAIN MAY MIX
IN...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO A COATING AT
MOST.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
O.K. NOW FOR THE REAL DRAMA. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OFFER
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS REGARDING AMPLITUDE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
ITS SURFACE RESPONSE...IN THE FORM OF A COASTAL LOW. NAM CONTINUES
TO OFFER THE FLATTEST AND MOST SUPPRESSED SOLUTION WITH SURFACE LOW
OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. EVEN THE DUSTY 00Z NGM IS FARTHER
NORTHWEST THAN THE NAM. THE GFS AT FIRST GLANCE APPEARED TOO ROBUST
WITH DEVELOPING A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTH OF NANTUCKET ALONG
WITH MODEST CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE BENCHMARK 18Z FRI. HOWEVER...00Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z UKMET SUPPORT THE 00Z GFS. ALOFT THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE UKMET ARE A BIT WEAKER WITH THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...HOWEVER THE UKMET IS ABOUT 2 MBS DEEPER /989 MB/ WITH
THE COASTAL LOW AT 18Z FRI. THE 00Z GGEM JUST ARRIVED AND ITS IN
BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM.
MAIN PLAYER HERE APPEARS TO BE BUNDLE OF JET ENERGY ACROSS BAJA AND
APPROACHING NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS IMPRESSIVE ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE KEY HERE WILL BE HOW MODELS HANDLE THIS
JET ENERGY AND ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION AS IT INTERACTS WITH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN
THIS JET FEATURE ALREADY APPEARS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE ALONG WITH
THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE 00Z UKMET SUPPORTING THE 00Z
GFS...PREFERENCE HERE IS TO GO WITH A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE GFS -
SLIGHTLY WEAKER...LESS QPF AND NOT AS WARM.
NOW FOR PTYPE...EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ATMOSPHERE AT THIS TIME IS
ONLY MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN IN
RESPONSE TO EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AND OCEAN TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. HOWEVER...PRESSURE FALLS SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND AHEAD OF COASTAL LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BACK SURFACE WIND
TO NORTH-NORTHEAST...LIMITING THE NORTHWEST PROGRESSION OF THE MILD
MARINE LAYER.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND UKMET 850 MB TEMPS ARE
ABOUT 2C COOLER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS...LIKELY DUE TO LESS
THERMAL ADVECTION GIVEN THESE SOLUTIONS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE
GFS. ENSEMBLE MEAN AND UKMET HAVE 0C 850 MB ISOTHERM LIFTING AS FAR
NORTH AS GON-PVD-PYM BY 18Z FRI. THIS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN/SNOW LINE
SOMEWHERE VICINITY OF I84 TO I90 AND NORTHEAST TO LWM. WHAT ADDS TO
COMPLEXITY OF THE FORECAST...IS THAT QPF BEGINS TO DIMINISH THIS FAR
NORTHWEST. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK
NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET. THUS...A SMALL AREA WHERE APPRECIABLE QPF AND COLD
ATMOSPHERE OVERLAP EACH OTHER. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST CT /INCLUDING
HFD/ INTO NORTHERN RI TO THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF BOSTON...AND
EXTENDING WEST INTO CENTRAL MA /WORCESTER HILLS/. FARTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH QPF DIMINISHES...THUS
LESS OF A SNOW THREAT.
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD...MARGINAL COLD AIR IN PLACE AND TIGHT QPF
GRADIENT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY AT THE MOMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE DETAILS
VIA OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
...and there is more to the AFD which elaborates on arctic outbreak coming up, but want to focus on Friday's storm first.
Special Weather Statement
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
514 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>018-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001-012145-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...AYER...
JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...
FOSTER...SMITHFIELD
514 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007
...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
AND THEN BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT PASSES ABOUT 125 MILES OR SO
SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THERE WILL BE A LACK OF VERY COLD AIR IN PLACE...AND THUS THE
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST FROM
BOSTON SOUTH. RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH THE SNOW AS FAR INLAND AS THE
BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...THIS INCLUDES THE 128 AND
495 CORRIDORS...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING WORCESTER AND
EXTENDING INTO INTERIOR CONNECTICUT INCLUDING THE CITY OF HARTFORD...A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...BUT BY NO MEANS
CERTAIN. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND ITS
INTENSITY...ACCUMULATING SNOWS MAY EXTEND SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST RHODE
ISLAND. FARTHER INLAND ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE...LESS SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DISTANCE OF THE STORM
TRACK OFFSHORE. JUST HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS WILL DEPEND UPON THE EXACT
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM...WHICH STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
ANY SNOW SHOULD END OR TAPER OFF TO JUST FLURRIES AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST LATE FRIDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD...AN ARCTIC BLAST OF COLD AIR REMAINS SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MANY
INTERIOR AREAS MAY ENCOUNTER LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO AND WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 10 BELOW OR COLDER.
2025EST Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Second call on 2/2-3
See main page for the storm forecast discussion.
Snowfall forecast for Keene, NH for 00z Friday through 12z Saturday (issued at 2030 1/31): 1" - 2"
2105EST Tuesday, January 30, 2007
First call on 2/2-3
Not much in the way of details included with this first call. My general thinking is 1+" in the "light" zone, 2.5+" in the "moderate" zone, and 4+" in the "heavy" zone. Significant icing does not seem to be a problem at this time, although cannot rule out .25+" for parts of inland New Jersey. In any case, up here in Keene, temperatures will not be an issue. There are only a handfull of models indicating a storm track west enough to make precip type an issue, and Im ruling those solutions out right away considering a usual trend to the east anyway. Right now, model of choice continues to be the GFS as it takes the low just SE of the benchmark on Friday. This would deliver the heaviest snows along and just west of the I95 corridor in SE MA and along the NH and ME coastlines. The NWS zone forecast is going with "moderate" snow accumulations on Friday. MOS data going with an inch overnight Thursday with Fridays forecast outside the range. Current thinking for Keene is 1" - 3" although the storm is still 3 days out and changes will likely occur.
-------------------------------------------
Quick discussion on the snow event tonight:
scattered snow showers moving through the region right now. Low pressure is entering NY dragging a cold front about 150 miles west of the eastern seaboard. Snow should increase in coverage tonight as the low strengthens and pulls moisture from the south. The zone forecast has not specified accumulations, which usually means dusting - 1/2". Point forecast issued at 244pm has 1.5" - 2.5" through tomorrow morning. Thinking that is way too high, and going with .5" to 1" through tomorrow, although emphasis on the .5". Am liking the NAM best for this event, with .25" QPF over the Cape and not much more than .01" QPF inland. Although, the models have a pretty good consensus anyway.
Delay potential: nothing doing is my opinion, but if somehow the point forecast's 2 inches comes about, we have a shot at a two hour delay. Out of respect for the point forecast, will raise the chances to 20%.
---------------------------------------------------------------
JANUARY 22, 2007
---------------------------------------------------------------
2115EST Monday, January 22, 2007
Some Pictures
2015EST Monday, January 22, 2007
Everything going as forecasted
Flurries fell throughout the day today under gray skies. Snow has increased in intensity this evening, and has accumulated .3 inches at my house. The snow should continue to fall through tonight as low pressure in NY and PA advances eastward. Additional accumulation of up to half an inch is possible tonight before the snow tapers off early tomorrow morning. I will stick with my original forecast of .5" - 1" through tomorrow afternoon. Delay probabilities will hold around 25% for the off chance of banding developing and a suprise two inch accumulation through tonight, but don't count on it!
FYI: Additional accumulation tonight may bring us to the highest snow depth so far this season (at least at my house). The highest so far is the 1.1" that accumulated on 12/30. I have yet to measure tonight, however by estimate, we have close to an inch on the ground.
1715EST Sunday, January 21, 2007
Snow prospects looking better
The NWS zone forecast gives us 1 - 3 inches Monday Night. Current feeling is that is too high especially considering the AFD which doesnt line up with that at all. At this point I'll just raise my confidence of one inch of snow accumulation through Tuesday. The possibility exists for two inches, but I dont want to stay low especially considering what happened with the last storm (1-19).
The latest point forecast has 1 - 2 inches Monday Night. It also includes .5" tomorrow and a dusting possible tonight.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
428 PM EST SUN JAN 21 2007
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THICKENING HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTN. WINDS
ARE SUBSIDING. THE ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS A VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY
APPROACHING CHICAGO. IT IS SCREAMING EASTWARD AND GFS FORECASTS THIS
NEAR ALBANY AT 7 AM MON AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY NOON. RADAR
SHOWS PRECIPITATION OUT AHEAD OF THIS MOVING INTO WESTERN NY STATE
ATTM. AS THIS AREA MOVES EAST...IT WILL ALSO BE ENCOUNTERING VERY
DRY AIR WITH DEW POINT VALUES BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR REGION.
THUS...SOME OF IT SHOULD DRY UP. HAVE FORECAST A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN NW MA AND SW NH. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW 850 RH RAPIDLY
INCREASING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THAT
SHOULD BE WHEN THE REAL THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS BEGINS. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT THE COAST DURING THE MORNING. MOTORISTS SHOULD
BE WARY OF ANY LOCALIZED POCKETS OF LOWER VISIBILITY DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WITH THE ENERGY ALGORITHM INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND EARLY
MON MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SOUNDINGS THERE APPEAR TOO COLD FOR THAT.
I WOULD THINK THAT SNOW GRAINS WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY RESULT.
WE WILL WATCH THIS SITUATION CLOSELY...IN CASE FREEZING DRIZZLE
BECOMES MORE OF A THREAT.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RADAR ALSO SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AREA...WHICH WILL IMPACT US LATER ON MONDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NE TO E ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP THE REGION SOCKED IN WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WHILE THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON...THE MAJORITY
SHOULD BE DRY.
1015EST Sunday, January 21, 2007
Tonight through Tuesday
A storm currently located on the Gulf Coast and another currently located over the OK panhandle are combining to create a significant storm system over the central CONUS. Heavy snows stretch from Minnesote to the Carolinas while heavy rain and thunderstorms pound the southeast. This complex will move eastward over the next few days with the northern fringes possibly affecting SNE tonight and then again Monday Night.
Tonights senario is the southern stream storm moving through the Mid Atlantic Region. There are significant icing and snow concerns from VA to GE. Since we have yet to establish a sufficient blocking ridge, this storm will continue east-northeast and out to sea. Even so, north of VA, light snow could reach CT tonight and some flurries or scattered snow showers could fall even up into Keene. No accumulation is expected.
The second part of the storm complex is associated with the northern jet and will affect our region a bit more than the first low. Light snow from this storm could reach as far north as Concord and east into Maine. While any accumulation will be very light, we could still see a dusting to perhaps an inch in the higher elevations of SW NH. South of us, CT and southern MA could pick up an inch or two before this low moves on eastward.
current BOX AFD Short term Disco:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
330 AM EST SUN JAN 21 2007
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MODERATE TODAY
AS TEMPS RISE AND WINDS DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN. BY
THIS AFTERNOON ANY GUSTINESS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF MASS.
WE'LL START OFF WITH SUNNY SKIES BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CIRRUS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.
WENT WITH A MET/MAV COMPROMISE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE
RANGE.
REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY CAUSING THE
WINTRY WEATHER IN THE PLAINS WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLE FROM IT'S CURRENT STATE. NONETHELESS...ENOUGH ASCENT
MAY OCCUR TO PROVIDE FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY WEST OF THE CT
RIVER. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AND NO HIGHER SINCE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE QUITE DRY. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY...REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WEAK INVERTED
TROF EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THIS LOW ALONG WITH APPROACHING MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. DIDN'T GO ANY HIGHER THAN 20
PERCENT ON THE POPS FOR MONDAY AS CHANCES DON'T LOOKS THAT GREAT FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW. THERE COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IF MID LEVELS DRY OUT FAST ENOUGH...BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN FORECAST ATTM.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR MONDAY.
My First Forecast Map:
First forecast for Keene: Total snow accumulation through 18z Tuesday: .5" to 1"
Here is a summary of the upcoming events based on the HPC forecast low tracks:
The Thursday storm potential is being covered in the post on the home page.
---------------------------------------------------------------
JANUARY 19, 2007
---------------------------------------------------------------
2130EST Thursday, January 18, 2007
No changes to Friday
Low is located off the NC coastline about 50 miles. Moving northward a little faster than progged, and snow flurries have already started to fall in Keene. Bands of snow showers will continue to sweep across the region through midnight. The heaviest / steadiest snow will occur between 3am and 6am. Accumulation by daybreak of 1 - 2 inches is possible. An addition .5 to 1 inch is possible through noon tomorrow as the low pulls northward and winds pick up. The current HPC forecast is a 967mb low north of Maine by tomorrow afternoon!
Delay potential: have upper the chance to 50% for a delay tomorrow. The timing of the storm has shifted forward and therefore, the heaviest snowfall will be occuring around rush hour time. This in addition to still icy roads as well as an inch already on the ground could be enough. However, one inch is usually not enough in most situations so that's where the uncertainty lies. If two inches have accumulated by day break with snow still falling, then a delay is more likely.
630EST Thursday, January 18, 2007
Delay potential tomorrow
Snow will move into the area by midnight tonight. Accumulations through daybreak will range around 1 inch. Snow will continue to fall through the morning and early afternoon. The heaviest period of snow will occur between 6am and 9am. Total snow accumulation of 1 - 2 inches is possible by 9am with an additional inch of snow by noon. The focus is the timing of snowfall tomorrow morning. With only one inch of snowfall by 6am, school will likely open on time. An inch more, with snow still falling, then count on a two hour delay. This all will be clearer by this evening.
1530EST Wednesday, January 17, 2007
First call on 1-19
A clipper system currently located in central Canada will move southeast tomorrow and position itself just north of the region Thursday evening with a front along the coast. Low pressure will redevelop along the front and move northward Thursday Night to about 50 miles east of Cape Cod. This low has been consistently projected to bomb out in the Gulf of Maine on Friday. The 18z run of the NAM has moved further offshore, however also deepens the low to sub 980mb Friday Night. If nothing else, we could have to contend with a significant wind event Friday Night into Saturday.
The current HPC projected track is well west of my thinking. The percentages also suggest that with the inland track will come a resurgence of warm air, limiting accumulations even up into central NH. One thing is for sure, northern and eastern Maine are in for a dumping.
It appears by the latest model guidence, that there is no ultimate way that we can win with this storm.
Still, the strength of the low combined with a sustained cold air mass over then region, points to a good chance of at least an inch of accumulation.
My current forecast:
Snow accumulation forecast for Keene, NH for 00z Friday to 12z Saturday: 1" - 2"
Snow will reach Keene, NH by 1am in scatterered snow showers. Light snow will continue to fall through 4am Friday. Precipitation will increase in intensity by 6am Friday and fall steadily / heavily through 8am before a dry slot pushed precipitation out of the area by 10am.
1530EST Wednesday, January 17, 2007
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
215 PM EST WED JAN 17 2007
CTZ003-004-MAZ003>005-010>012-026-NHZ011-012-015-180930-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
TOLLAND CT-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WINDHAM CT-
215 PM EST WED JAN 17 2007
...A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND BITTERLY COLD WIND
CHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
IT APPEARS A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS IT EXITS CAPE COD INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND RAIN TO REGION DURING THIS TIME...WITH MAINLY SNOW WEST OF
ROUTE 128 IN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL JUST PRIOR TO AND DURING THE FRIDAY
MORNING RUSH HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE...THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN AS
SOUTH WINDS LIFT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS
CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. RAIN WILL
LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY MORNING ALL LOCATIONS BEFORE
ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR THIS BURST OF ACCUMULATIVE SNOW IS FROM
WORCESTER EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO FITCHBURG...LOWELL...NASHUA AND
MANCHESTER...WHERE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW...A VERY WINDY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY IS UPCOMING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 45 OR 50 MPH
WILL BE AFFECTING THE TRAVEL OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND POSSIBLY
CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. IN ADDITION...THE STRONG WINDS AND
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL GENERATE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
---------------------------------------------------------------
JANUARY 15, 2007
---------------------------------------------------------------
730EST Tuesday, January 16, 2007
MLK Storm Summary
Well, we still ended up with a delay this morning.
Total snow / sleet accumulation for this storm was .5" in Keene
Total freezing rian accretion for this storm was .3" in Keene
My forecast snowfall was well off the mark. I, along with other meteorologists were counting on backend snows last night to deliver up to 2 to 3 inches of the white stuff. The storm weakened somewhat and while we have some snow showers off the lakes this morning, no wrap around precipitation occurred.
My ice forecast was on the mark. Freezing rain accumulated on all surfaces to .25 to .3" Power was lost at my house for 4 hours yesterday, and we have branches down ranging in diameter from 1" to 12".
HPC final storm summary:
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 14 FOR HEAVY FREEZING RAIN... SNOW AND RAIN
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
900 PM CST MON JAN 15 2007
...ICE STORM...HEAVY SNOW AND HEAVY RAINFALL DIMINISHING...
ICE STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
TEXAS...MUCH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK...VERMONT...WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND CENTRAL MAINE.
HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MAINE.
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL TEXAS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
TEXAS...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WESTERN NEW
YORK...MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND SOUTHERN
MAINE.
SNOW ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN MAINE.
FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...EASTERN ARKANSAS...CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...WESTERN
KENTUCKY...INDIANA...AND OHIO.
AT 9 PM CST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NEW ENGLAND WAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
SOUTHWESTWARD WAS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM
CENTRAL NEW YORK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. LIGHT
SNOW WAS FALLING OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WERE EXPERIENCING
FREEZING RAIN. ADDITIONALLY...PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS WERE
EXPERIENCING RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN.
...SELECTED STORM SNOW TOTALS IN INCHES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH 8 PM
CST MONDAY...
...WYOMING...
ENCAMPMENT 16.0
SARATOGA 20 SE 12.0
SARATOGA 6.0
RAWLINS 4.0
WARREN AFB 4.0
BAGGS 3.0
...NEVADA...
GREAT BASIN NAT PARK 12.0
PIOCHE 8.0
ELY 7.0
...UTAH...
TOOELE 17.0
SALEM 14.0
BRIAN HEAD 12.0
MONTICELLO 12.0
BRIGHTON CREST 11.0
CEDAR CITY 10.5
GLADE PARK 10.3
SANTAQUIN 10.0
...COLORADO...
TELLURIDE 18.0
OURAY 9 SSW 13.5
AVON 11.0
MAYBELL 47 NW 10.0
HAMILTON 9.5
WOLF CREEK PASS 9 NE 9.0
MESA 9.0
MEEKER 8.5
PAGOSA SPRINGS 8.0
CRAIG 8.0
BAYFIELD 7.6
SILVERTON 7.0
PUEBLO WEST 7.0
...NEW MEXICO...
CHAMA 12.0
RED RIVER 10.0
ANGEL FIRE 7.0
LAS VEGAS 7 NNW 6.0
GALLUP 5.5
CHAMA 5.0
RED RIVER 4.0
SANTA FE 11 S 4.0
...TEXAS...
MIAMI 2.0
DALHART 2.0
VEGA 1.5
GUYMON 1.5
PERRYTON 15 S 1.0
...OKLAHOMA...
NORMAN 1.5
CHICKASAW 1.2
...MISSOURI...
COLUMBIA 3.2
HOPKINS 3.0
WORTH 3.0
GRANT CITY 3.0
IRON GATES 2.8
CONCEPTION JUNCTION 2.7
ROCKPORT 2.0
...IOWA...
DOON 8.0
HOLSTEIN 7.0
EVERLY 7.0
SPIRIT LAKE 6.5
NORFOLK 6.5
SHELDON 6.3
HORNICK 6.0
SPENCER 6.0
LITTLE SIOUX 6.0
OCHEYEDAN 6.0
...NEBRASKA...
ELWOOD 8.0
NEWCASTLE 7.2
SOUTH SIOUX CITY 6.5
NORFOLK 6.5
LOUP CITY 6.0
GREELEY 6.0
FULLERTON 6.0
WAKEFIELD 6.0
ORD 6.0
ARAPAHOE 6.0
...SOUTH DAKOTA...
VERMILLION 7.5
YANKTON 7.0
ALCESTER 6.0
CANTON 4.6
WAGNER 4.5
PARKER 4.0
LAKE ANDES 4.0
...MINNESOTA...
BURNSVILLE 8.0
SHERBURN 8.0
ST. JAMES 8.0
PRIOR LAKE 7.2
APPLE VALLEY 7.0
WELLS 7.0
JACKSON 6.0
WORTHINGTON 6.0
LAKEFIELD 5.0
SLAYTON 4.0
...ILLINOIS...
ROSCOE 4.5
FREEPORT 4.0
STOCKTON 3.9
ROCKFORD 3.0
BELVIDERE 3.0
CAPRON 3.0
...MICHIGAN...
ROGERS CITY 6.5
MUSKEGON 6.3
6 WNW MOUNT PLEASANT 6.0
ENSLEY CENTER 6.0
HOWARD CITY 6.0
LAKE ANN 6.0
MERRILL 5.7
MOUNT PLEASANT 5.5
CLARE 5.0
RODNEY 5.0
AU GRES 4.5
...WISCONSIN...
JANESVILLE 6.0
FRANKSVILLE 6.0
KENOSHA 5.5
GLENDALE 5.2
MIDDLETON 5.1
BROOKFIELD 4.8
MILWAUKEE 4.4
GENNESSEE 4.0
...SELECTED FREEZING RAIN ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN INCHES THROUGH 8 PM
CST MONDAY...
...KANSAS...
FARLINGTON 1.50
FORT SCOTT 1.00
CHEROKEE 0.50
SEDAN 0.50
IOLA 0.25
INDEPENDENCE 0.25
WINFIELD 0.25
...MISSOURI...
BUFFALO 2.00
SARCOXIE 1W 2.00
LEBANON 2 W 1.25
SPRINGFIELD 1.25
DIXON 1.00
FRANKLIN 1.00
LAMAR 1.00
MORGAN 1 SE 1.00
WARSAW 1.00
WALNUT GROVE 0.50
KIMBERLING CITY 5NW 0.67
CROSS TIMBERS 2N 0.50
LINCOLN 0.50
LOWRY CITY 5E 0.50
PITTSBURG 0.50
HIGHLANDVILLE 2 SSW 0.38
...OKLAHOMA...
WHITEFIELD 2.00
EUFAULA 1.50
ARDMORE 1.00
WILBURTON 1.00
ARPELAR 1.00
ADA 0.75
LAWTON 0.75
PORTER 0.75
...ILLINOIS...
ALTONA 1.00
CHATHAN 0.75
ATHENS 0.75
DELAVAN 0.50
LEWISTOWN 0.50
GRAFTON 0.50
PRINCEVILLE 0.40
AVON 0.38
TOULON 0.30
KNOXVILLE 0.25
...INDIANA...
GRANGER 0.25
...MICHIGAN...
CENTREVILLE 0.50
MOSCOW 0.40
BRONSON 0.30
LANSING 0.30
HASTINGS 0.25
PARCHMENT 0.25
MARSHALL 0.25
BELLEVUE 0.25
MASON 0.25
...TEXAS...
GEORGETOWN 0.50
LEVELLAND 0.50
STERLING CITY 8 N 0.50
MEMPHIS 0.50
GAINESVILLE 0.50
CHILDRESS 0.33
WEATHERFORD 0.25
LORENZO 0.25
GAINSVILLE 0.25
LUBBOCK 0.25
PARCHMENT 0.25
ARLINGTON 0.20
...NEW YORK...
BUSKIRK 0.60
GREENWICH 0.60
LAKE PLEASANT 0.25
...SELECTED SLEET ACCUMULATIONS IN INCHES THROUGH 9 PM CST
MONDAY...
...OKLAHOMA...
BLACKWELL 3.00
WOODWARD 3.00
TALOGA 3.00
ALVA 3.00
POND CREEK 2.50
SHAWNEE 2.50
PADEN 2.50
BLANCHARD 2.50
TULSA 2.00
BROKEN ARROW 2.00
MORRISON 2.00
ENID 2.00
CHEYENNE 2.00
NORMAN 1.70
...TEXAS...
WHEELER 2.00
PAMPA 1.00
WHITE DEER 1.00
CLAUDE 1.00
AMARILLO 0.50
VEGA 0.50
CANADIAN 0.50
LEFORS 0.50
...KANSAS...
WELLINGTON 3.50
IOLA 2 S 3.00
PARSONS 5 SW 3.00
ARKANSAS CITY 2.50
PARSONS 2.50
FREDONIA 2.00
SEDAN 2.00
CHANUTE 2.00
COFFEYVILLE 2.00
HALE 1.30
CANEY 1.25
OTTAWA 1.25
MEDICINE LODGE 1.00
SALINA 0.75
...MISSOURI...
CLINTON 6.00
LAMAR 6N 3.00
SEDALIA 3.00
LOWRY CITY 2.10
CALIFORNIA 2.00
WARRENSBURG 2.00
BUTLER 2.00
LAURIE 2.00
CROSS TIMBERS 2.00
KINGSVILLE 2.00
LAURIE 2.00
...ILLINOIS...
PAYSON 2.00
MOUNT STERLING 1.00
GRIGGSVILLE 1.00
COLCHESTER 0.75
AUGUSTA 0.75
MACOMB 0.75
...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES AS OF 2 PM CST MONDAY...
...TEXAS...
HARLETON 7.50
LINDEN 7.36
GILMER 7.18
TALCO 7.00
TYLER 6.84
LONGVIEW 6.73
TEXARKANA 6.70
JEFFERSON - BLACK CYPRESS CREEK 6.16
ATHENS 6.01
CENTER 6.00
CORSICANA 5.51
HAWKINS 5.31
CHIRENO 5.30
STREETMAN 5.14
TRINITY 5.08
DALLAS - TRINITY RIVER 4.85
AUSTIN 4.80
HENDERSON 4.27
ROUND ROCK 4.20
...OKLAHOMA...
CLAYTON 4.04
PAGE 4.00
SALLISAW 3.88
BIG CEDAR 3.83
BENGAL 3.82
ANTLERS 3.60
PANAMA 3.26
GUTHRIE 2.61
RED OAK 2.60
FARRIS 2.44
SULPHUR 2.17
TAHLEQUAH 2.15
ELDON 2.15
...KANSAS...
MAYFIELD 4.50
MCCUNE 2.01
PITTSBURG 1.65
ERIE 1.22
...MISSOURI...
KAISER/LAKE OZARK 10.00
COMMERCE 4.99
ANISTON 4.87
CARUTHERSVILLE 4.86
POPLAR BLUFF 4.85
DONIPHAN 4.78
MYRTLE 4.74
ROCKAWAY BEACH 4.28
BLOOMFIELD 3.90
ROLLA 3.90
SPRINGFIELD MUNI ARPT 3.86
CAPE GIRARDEAU MUNI ARPT 3.68
JACKSON 3.28
ARNOLD 3.27
THOMPSON LANDING 3.25
SAINT LOUIS/LAMBERT 2.27
...LOUISIANA...
SHREVEPORT (FLAT RIVER) 7.57
FARMERVILLE 6.24
HOSSTON 6.22
LOGANSPORT 5.94
HANNA 5.83
COTTON VALLEY 5.81
JONESBORO 5.50
QUITMAN 5.30
CADDO LAKE - LEIBERMAN 5.22
ASHLAND 5.20
KEITHVILLE 5.02
...MISSISSIPPI...
CLARKSDALE 3.29
OLIVE BRANCH 1.44
TUNICA 1.43
LELAND 1.42
...ARKANSAS...
BLAKELY MT DAM-LAKE OUACHITA 9.17
NARROWS DAM - LAKE GLEESON 8.07
AMITY 8.05
NASHVILLE 7.48
CLINTON 7.40
EXARKANA RGNL ARPT 6.93
HOT SPRINGS 6.84
LITTLE ROCK ADAMS FIELD 6.52
BATESVILLE 5.78
OZARK 5.63
RUSSELLVILLE 5.24
FORT SMITH MUNI ARPT 5.03
HOPPER 4.96
WILLIAMS JUNCTION 4.44
WYE 4.16
...INDIANA...
BOWLING GREEN 3.77
GREENSBURG 3.77
NASHVILLE 3.58
BLOOMINGTON 3.55
ELLISTON 3.50
EMINENCE 3.50
MARTINSVILLE 3.42
LOGANSPORT 3.38
MOUNT VERNON 3.37
EVANSVILLE 3.12
TERRE HAUTE 3.10
VINCENNES 2.94
INDIANAPOLIS 2.90
...ILLINOIS...
CAIRO 3.98
BROOKPORT 3.80
HUTSONVILLE 3.80
GRAND CHAIN 3.70
BELLEVILLE 3.62
PANA 3.54
SCOTT AFB 3.44
EFFINGHAM 2.84
CAHOKIA 2.74
LEBANON 2.70
HIGHLAND 2.61
...KENTUCKY...
PADUCAH 4.04
PROVIDENCE 2.65
OWENSBORO 2.38
DIXON 2.34
CADIZ 2.27
UNIONTOWN DAM 1.35
FRANKFORT 1.34
LOUISVILLE 1.13
BEAVERLICK 1.07
...TENNESSEE...
DYERSBURG 3.36
UNION CITY 3.01
BOGOTA 2.98
OBION 2.64
N. FORK OBION RIVER 2.61
COVINGTON 2.49
HALLS 2.30
DRESDEN 2.29
ALAMO 2.20
MCKENZIE 2.00
...OHIO...
COLUMBUS 3.93
NASHVILLE 3.36
CENTERVILLE 3.28
MORAINE 3.08
OXFORD 3.08
WAYNESVILLE 3.00
BUCKEYE LAKE 2.88
DAYTON 2.87
BASIL JOINT 2.76
LANCASTER 2.28
...MICHIGAN...
MORENCI 1.75
WHITE PIGEON 1.60
UNION 1.31
DETROIT 1.21
ANN ARBOR MUNI ARPT 1.09
PAULDING 1.02
...PENNSYLVANIA...
CHALKHILL 2.92
CROWN 2.84
JUMONVILLE 2.60
JACKSON TOWNSHIP 2.32
KINZUA 2.17
LATROBE 2.20
BEAR ROCKS 2.16
FRYBURG 2.16
NEW SALEM 1.92
...WEST VIRGINIA...
ROWLESBURG 2.10
MANNINGTON 1.95
NEW CUMBERLAND DAM 1.73
WHEELING 1.57
...MARYLAND...
ACCIDENT 1.26
FRIENDSVILLE 1.21
...NEW YORK...
WELLSVILLE 1.88
SILVER CREEK 1.54
BUFFALO WFO 1.24
NIAGARA FALLS INTL ARPT 1.08
THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EASTWARD AND
WEAKENED. TWO TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AROUND THE
GREAT LAKES MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN
MIXED WITH SLEET IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STORM SUMMARY ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER FOR THIS EVENT. A NEW SERIES
OF STORM SUMMARIES HAVE BEEN STARTED FOR THE FREEZING RAIN EVENT
IN TEXAS. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THESE EVENTS+.
TRIMARCO
1130EST Monday, January 15, 2007
Peak Ice Pictures
930EST Monday, January 15, 2007
Ice Pictures
700EST Monday, January 15, 2007
Warmer air problems
Temperature right now is 30 in Keene, 5 degree above the expected low yesterday. Freezing rain and sleet is falling and a glaze has already accumulated on most surfaces. While snowfall expectations have lessened, icing is still expected to be a significant issue through tomorrow morning. Ice accretion of up to .3" is possible. Not much in the way of snow accumulation will occur today with temperatures hovering around freezing at the surface and mid 30's up above. However, later this evening, as cold air advection moves in, steady snow behind the storm could amount to around 2 to 4 inches by Tuesday morning.
Snowday probabilities:
A cancellation for Tuesday is not going to happen, however delay chances still exist. All will depend on the amount of snow that falls tonight, as well as the temperature tomorrow morning. If the temperature is low enough, salt will be ineffective, and we could have very unsafe driving conditions (with ice under the new snow).
1700EST Sunday, January 14, 2007
Warmer air?
Precipitation type appears to be a big problem now in Keene for tomorrow. The previous thoughts of mostly a sleet/snow/some freezing rain through Monday and just snow Monday Night have diminished. In its place is an outlook for more icy conditions with surface temperatures hovering around freezing. This lowers ice/snow accumulations considerably. The NWS has pulled the winter storm watch, which lasted all of 6 hours. It appears now that an abundance of upper level warmth will be supported by the low pressure area to our south on Monday. In addition, surface lift will be pulled out by the low before solid cold advection reaches the region. This means less back-end snows on Monday Night. All-in-all, the next 6 hours will be the disapointment that comes with every storm. The question is whether or not, the forecast changes over the 12 hours. This is certainly possible, and we still have a shot at warning criteria snow/ice tomorrow, however, with the support of back-end snows gone, we most likely will be going to school on time on Tuesday.
We will officially be moving into short term forecast mode around 6pm this evening. Now is the time to start watching the weather maps and comparing them to the model forecasts as well as the HPC forecasts.
Final Forecast:
Forecast snow accumulation
for Keene, NH
for 12am Monday through 12pm Tuesday:
3" - 5"
Forecast ice accumulation
for Keene, NH
for 12am Monday through 12pm Tuesday:
.2" - .3"
Discussion: The NAM and GFS agree on a storm QPF of around one inch. The NAM is slightly cooler than the GFS and keeps the 850mb 0C line just south of the NH/MA border while the GFS has it extending over SW NH. NWS Zone forecast has snowfall totals adding up to 3 - 7 inches through Tuesday morning. NWS Point forecast has a total snowfall forecast of 3 - 5 inches. Latest MOS data doesnt give Keene anything more than 3 inches. Experimental graphical forecast (issued at 1247pm Sunday) gives Keene 8.0" of snow through 7am Tuesday. Experimental matrix point forecast (issued at 455pm Sunday) gives Keene 4 + T through 6am Tuesday.
In addition to the official and experimental forecasts of the NWS, forecast maps issued by various members of EUSWX range from giving Keene a sloppy inch of snow to 6 to 12 inches of snow. The snow accumulation forecast will greatly depend on the precipitation type and consequently could change with a one degree shift in temperature from the surface up to 10000 feet.
750EST Sunday, January 14, 2007
First pictures of the storm
Some light snow/sleet accumulation occurred overnight. Sorry about the low quality of this picture.
720EST Sunday, January 14, 2007
UPDATED FORECAST FOR MONDAY
The NWS has provided the first accumulation forecasts for Monday. The zone forecast for Cheshire County specifies 3-5 inches of snow and sleet. Monday night, the accumulation forecast has been raised from "light" to "moderate." With moderate roughly translating to 2-5 inches, we could be talking about snow/sleet accumulations of 5 to 10 inches by Tuesday morning. As for ice accumulations, we are looking very close to .5 inches of freezing rain accretion. Delay chances for Tuesday are looking better as the timing has shifted over a few hours.
This could be a very dangerous situation for anyone traveling today, tomorrow, or Tuesday morning. Stay tuned for the latest on this developing winter storm.
1720EST Saturday, January 13, 2007
UPDATED FORECAST
18z model runs of the GFS and NAM are not showing the cold air as strong as before. Right now, the GFS is the warmest with 850mb temperatures just below 0C over Cheshire County. This will promise frozen precipitation, however more icing is probable rather than the earlier thought, period of steady 12:1 snow. At the moment, advisory level snow is still possible, and advisory level icing is all but guarenteed. In addition, highest accumulation amounts have moved south of the area, and now target MA. My icing forecast hasnt changed too much; still looking at .25 to .35 inches of freezing rain accumulation plus up to half to one and a half inches of sleet accumulation. The previous snowfall forecast of 3 - 6 inches is now looking a tad high. An inch off (2 - 5 inches) is probably about right at the moment. Things will probably change tomorrow though.
CPC forecast:
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
516 PM EST SAT JAN 13 2007
VALID 00Z SUN JAN 14 2007 - 00Z WED JAN 17 2007
DAY 2...
THE MAIN UPPER TROF SHOULD START OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN
TURN MORE EASTERLY...PASSING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE MORE FREEZING RAINFALL ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TROFS PATH...WITH A SHIELD OF SNOW/SLEET
EXTENDING BACK INTO THE COLD AIR. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...HIGH
SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULD LEAD TO A STRIPE OF 4 OR MORE INCHES.
IN ADDITION...THERE SHOULD BE A SEPARATE BAND OF SNOW OVER PARTS
OF NEW ENGLAND THE FORMS IN DIFFERENTIAL PVA AND WAA PATTERN. WE
TENDED TOWARDS THE WETTER NAM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 12Z
ECMWF TAKES IT H85 LOW FROM MO INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...ON A
PATH THAT PUTS SNOWS NORTH OF EVEN THE NAM. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...WE HAVE A FAIRLY BROAD AREAL COVERAGE OF SLGT RISKS
AT THIS POINT.
THE RISK OF FREEZING RAINFALL EXTENDS SOUTH WEST INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS A PERIOD WHERE COLD
AIR UNDERCUTS A SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR WITH MORE
MOISTURE. THE PROBABILISTIC MAPS WERE BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS/NAM/ECMWF.
DAY 3...
NORTHEAST/GTLKS...
THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENTS WITH THE DETAILS OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT PULLS NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH THE
DISAGREEMENTS ARE NOT AS LARGE AS BEFORE. THE IDEA OF SNOW AND A
TRANSITION ZONE OF FREEZING PCPN STILL IS IN ORDER BEFORE COLD
ADVECTION SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE LOW. ONCE AGAIN
WE TENDED TO FAVOR THE MORE NORTHERLY AND WETTER TRACK OF THE
NAM/ECMWF. THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK TO BE TOO DRY IN THE AREA.
BANN
1120EST Saturday, January 13, 2007
FIRST FORECAST MAP FOR 1/15
For Keene, NH: 3-6 inches is possible by the end of the storm. Icing up to .25" is possible by noon Monday.
Friday January 12, 2007
First Call for 1/15
The storm coming up on Monday has many possible results. First variable is the precipitation type. This will be changed in part by the speed of the arctic air mass that will be moving in behind this storm. Right now it appears that the arctic front will be moving in slowly. While this will mean that we will see a solid 3 hours of icing, it will also mean that the track of the storm will stay closer to the coast (probably inland) and will guarentee that we will see significant accumulation with this storm. Precipitation will begin in the form of rain, freezing rain, and snow Sunday Night, with light accumulation of snow, and a glaze of ice possible by daybreak. Colder air will start to move in on Monday, and it is likely that temperatures will remain below 30F. In addition, colder air will move in at the upper levels, securing a change to snow, and snow to water ratios over 10:1. The current outlook is for up to 1.5 storm QPF by Tuesday morning. Total snow accumulations by Tuesday morning in Keene will be on the order of 3 to 7 inches with a quarter inch of ice accumulation possible as well. I'll have an official forecast map out later tonight.
With the timing of this storm, the possibility also arises for a delay / cancellation on Tuesday. Monday is Martin Luther King Jr. day so despite a solid chance that school would have been cancelled, alas, we have no school to cancel. In any case, right now, I'm saying a 20% chance of a snow day (unlikely, and a definite decision is "no" at the moment), and a 50% chance of a delay (very possible if the timing of the storm shifts just a few hours later).
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DECEMBER 30, 2006
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Saturday, December 30, 2006
12/30 snow pictures
End of the storm^^^
11:56am -snow is coming down steadily now.
11:40am -Accumulation is becoming more evident on the steps.
11:39am -The fine snow has been replaced by fatter flakes. Some white is visible now on the lawn.
11:18am -Light fine snow starting to fall. Cold enough that accumulations are already occurring. View is looking at steps on the south side of the house.
11:10am -Just flurries at this point. View is looking at the yard on the south side of the house. Bare ground right now.Friday, December 29, 2006; 16:15EDT
Snow chances looking better
The NWS has raised POPs to 60% for Cheshire County tomorrow and snow "likely" tomorrow afternoon. The NWS forecast has Keene at 1" of accumulation. That is along my lines of thinking as well. 2" is not out of the question in the higher elevations. If this occurs, it would be the first measurable snowfall this season. While that has been said before, this time, there is a much better chance of snow accumulation because this time we are not battling warm temperatures. The question is QPF and NOT precipitation type.
First forecast map:
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