Sunday, September 24, 2006

Severe T'storms today followed by cooler air


Update: 13:25EDT
The NWS BOX and ABL Radars are lighting up as storms approach the region from the west. Currently, the main line of storms is moving through Southern Vermont on an axis from northern NH south and west into northeastern PA. These storms contain heavy rain, lightning, and are bringing with them extremely high winds gusting up to 50 to 60mph. Notable wind damage from these storms is likely. If you hear thunder, take cover immediately. These are fast moving storms and will turn the weather ugly within seconds.






An intense storm system that has been terrorizing the midwest for the past few days will move into our region this afternoon. temperatures will soar out ahead of the storm system into the mid to upper 70s in southern New England. The air will be unstable enough (70-80/60-70)for the sharp cold front passage to bring severe weather as far north as central NH and VT. Currently Keene sits at 63/63. The SPC has placed southern New England under a slight risk for severe weather/2% chance of a tornado/5% chance of large hail/15% chance of damaging winds. As it is, the main threat and the focus of discussion is the threat for a squall line and damaging winds nearing 60 to 70mph. The time frame for the storms to come through is between 3 and 6pm in the Connecticut River Valley. The potential also exists for non-thunderstorm damaging winds. Just ahead and behind the front, jet stream winds aloft of 140 to 180mph will be able to mix down to the surface. Winds could blow sustained at 35mph with gusts up to 50mph through early Monday morning. wind advisories have been issued for parts of SNE in anticipation of this threat. The NWS-issued advisory currently does not include Keene however may be extended when confidence rises on a serious wind event. Stay tuned for updates throughout the day on this potentially dangerous situation.
Once the front sweeps the region, much cooler air (about 20 degrees F) will move in. Monday highs will struggle into the low 60s for many areas north of the MASS Turnpike and lows will fall into the upper 30s to 40s for Monday and Tuesday Night. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Thursday as another storm approaches. A chance of showers will move into New England Thursday Night with showers possible through Friday. Temperatures will fall back again on Saturday under partly sunny skies.
It should be noted that there is growing anticipation of a coastal event in the long term. The event based on recent model outputs is progged for some time Sunday through next Tuesday. Obviously precipitation type should not even be thought about, however heavy rains and high winds could batter SNE if this storm becomes a reality.

The tropics are currently putting meteorologists to sleep. Hurricane Helene is maintaining intensity as a strong category 1. Helene is moving north and northeast over the central and northern Atlantic and could have a significant impact on the Azores. Helene has already begun extratropical transition and will likely become a very intense extratropical cyclone within the next 24 hours.
Besides Helene, the only other area of interest is a tropical wave that we have been monitoring for the past 4 days. The wave, invest 96L, is now over the central tropical atlantic and has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next few days. 96L is expected to recurve northward and pose no threat to the US mainland.

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