Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Helene a major, Gordon a cat2, showers today


Helene strengthened into a major hurricane about 36 hours ago and since then has been maintaining winds at 115mph. Her satellite presentation, which was excellent yesterday with a distinct eye and cold cloud tops around the western periphery, has deteriorated somewhat this morning. She currently has a more ragged eye and is elongated from north to south. Strengthening still appears likely for the next 48 hours as Helene passes over 26 to 28C waters with very low shear. The possibility does exist for Helene to become a category four hurricane. However, Helene will pose no threat to any land as she will begin to recurve within the next 48 hours.
Gordon has been surprising everyone these past few days. The NHC forecast on Saturday was for the 75mph Gordon to weaken into a tropical storm and become extratropical by today. The 5am advisory reveals a 105mph Gordon racing eastward, and while extratropical transition is likely to occur soon, until then, Gordon is a strong category two hurricane. Gordon should begin weakening within the next 24 to 36 hours but will likely still affect the Azores as a hurricane. Gordon then could threaten northern Spain as well (the second time in history and the second time in the past two years a hurricane has affected Spain (Vince)).

The warm weather the past few days is about ready to be whisked away by a strong cold front which will swing through the area tonight. showers out ahead of the front will move into the region this afternoon and evening. rain will continue into tonight and it is not out of the question for some embedded heavy showers and storms. total rainfall will range between a half and three quarters of an inch however higher in any heavy showers. Cooler weather will move in behind the front for Wednesday with highs topping out in the upper 60s to near 70. lows will drop off Wednesday Night and Thursday Night into the low to mid 30s with a threat for frost and even a freeze on Thursday Night. Highs through Saturday will range in the mid to upper 60s under sunny skies. Sunday, temperatures will begin to moderate some and another chance for showers will move into the area.

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