Saturday, September 16, 2006

Helene a hurricane... Gordon stalled out... heating up in SNE


Helene has been slowly but surely increasing in intensity and achieved hurricane intensity earlier today. The future of Helene is very uncertain right now. Strengthening will definitely occur for the next 48 hours and Helene could become a category 2 hurricane. After that, the track forecast becomes vital to say anything about intensity. The models split by day 4 as about half take Helene south of the ridge and half move it northward into the same weakness that guided Florence and Gordon northward. A westward track would mean a threat to the US east coast so Helene needs to be monitored. The latest 18z GFS run takes Helene to NC and up to New England but take this with a grain of salt for now...
Gordon is clinging to hurricane intensity right now as it moves slowly northward over cooler waters and more shear. Gordon is very close to stalling out and this could assist in pushing Helene back south under the ridge.

After a cool stretch that had everyone thinking winter for a couple of days, the region has begun to heat up again. today temperatures ranged from the 70s to low and mid 80s in southern New England. tomorrow even warmer highs are possible and on Monday temps in Keene could reach 85 with a few spotty 90s not out of the question in MA and CT!
A strong frontal boundary will cross the region Tuesday Night with showers and embedded thunderstorms possible Tuesday Afternoon and Night. Behind the front, cold air will move back into the area with highs in the mid 60s and lows in the 30s. temperatures should begin to moderate by next weekend.

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