Friday, October 6, 2006

Beautiful weekend ahead! Nor'easter clobbering MA


Cold and dry air moved in behind the front that crossed the region Wednesday Night. Highs yesterday struggled into the upper 50s and low 60s and it looks to be no different today. Blue skies and leaves speeding up the change will give New Englanders a real nice Autumn weekend. Tonight and tomorrow night, clear skies will allow radiational cooling and lows around 30. Frost is definitely a possibility in the area. Frost advisories have been issued to our south and west and the first freeze warnings this season for some have been issued to our west and north into up state NY. Temperatures will moderate some as we move into the latter half of the weekend. Highs may nudge a little above the average of 64 Sunday and on Columbus Day. Partly to mostly sunny skies will hold strong through the middle of the work week. Highs will fall back to near 60 with lows in the mid 30s to near 40. The main story begins on Thursday (day 7) when a storm system will bring rain to the region. Prefrontal temperatures will rise into the mid 60s however behind the front, The latest runs of the EURO and GFS models are indication figid air spilling down from Canada into the heart of the region. The first snows for some may arrive by mid week from North Dakota all the way south into Oklahoma. New Englanders should stay tuned here for information on our shot at some snow Friday into next weekend.
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South of the region, the Mid Atlantic states are getting clobbered with heavy rains and strong winds from a nor'easter that has begun pulling out to sea. New England wont see any of this (except for some increased winds). The rain shield has approached further north than earlier expected (nearing NYC right now) however has stalled as dry air is pushing southward keeping sunny skies here to stay in the Monadnock Region.
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The tropics are quite quiet compared to this time last year, however we still have some activity. Invest 99L is located in the western Atlantic. It is a very large area of low pressure, and may develop into a tropical or subtropical storm within the next few days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI OCT 6 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA
HAS FORMED ABOUT 360 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY POORLY
ORGANIZED...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY.



Foliage report courtesy of The Foliage Network:

"October 4, 2006

October, the month typically associated with the best foliage viewing in the Northeast, has arrived and brought with it an abundance of fall colors in much of the northern half of the region. Peak foliage conditions can be found in the northern half of Maine, extreme northern New Hampshire, the White Mountains in northern New Hampshire, the northeast corner of Vermont and the higher elevations of New York's Adirondack Mountains. High color (61% - 80% change) has arrived in central Maine, the balance of northern New Hampshire, the Green Mountains in Vermont and much of northern New York. Elsewhere in the region, foliage color is a mix of low color (11% - 30% change) and moderate color (31% - 60% change).

Leaf drop is mostly very low in the Northeast with the exception of those areas with moderate and high color. Leaf drop in those areas is low to moderate.

This information provided by Marek D. Rzonca, The Foliage Network.

Next Report: Saturday, October 7, 2006"




2006 will probably end up having one of the best autumns in a while. Peak is starting to spread into northern NH. Here in Keene we have moderate color and leaf drop is still minimal. Our normal peak is around the 15th of October.

We are doing excellent in comparison to 2005, and I'd say even 2004 didnt have as good a fall as 2006 looks to be.





Post Script:

I'll likely be posting my first outlook for winter 2006-2007 this weekend. Be looking for it in the winter weather outlook page.
Also, I'm a little late with this, however I should be posting climate inforemation on the 2006 summer as well as 2006 September sometime today. That will be on the main page.

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