Up through Monday, the forecast is relatively straight forward. Tuesday, things get complicated as our weather will greatly depend on the track of a low pressure area off the SE coast.
An storm system is forecasted to develop in the SE on Monday and move off the coast Monday Night. This we are fairly confident on as almost every model agrees with it. That is for the most part the only thing they agree on however. For the past 5 days, there was a consensus on this storm heading far east of New England with the only affects being marine and coastal related. Now, the 06z run of the operational GFS has shifted the track west by about 250 miles, now bringing precipitation into the region late Tuesday and Wednesday. None of the emsemble GFS runs agree with this solution (although a few come close) therefore the op run is being taken with a grain of salt. However, we should still watch this as the time exists for a consensus to be reached on a westward shift through tomorrow.
Temperature - wise, if the storm comes up the coast to New England, a southeastern flow will form and warm at coastal areas inland 50 miles as much as 5 to 10 degrees. Storm-influenced cold may be enough to counteract the onshore flow past 50 miles inland; enough possibly to allow precipitation to fall as snow, especially over 1000ft.
In any case, that is only if the storm does track further west. Following the current conservative consensus of an eastward track, we would see normal to maybe one or two degrees below normal temperatures resume through the later part of next week.
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