Interesting NWS AFD

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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STRONG UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL AID IN PUSHING A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY ON
THURS AS THE UPPER TROF REALLY DIGS AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A POSITIVE
TILT. THIS WILL ALLOW RAIN TO FALL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE COLD
FRONT BECOMES ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO.

IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST OF NANTUCKET THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN MOST
LIKELY RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE.
THIS WILL ALLOW STEADY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN FALLING ACRS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN FINALLY END SOMETIME FRIDAY
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...COLDER AIR
WILL BE DRAWN EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.

THE COLUMN SHOULD BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO TRANSITION TO
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS THURS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...BUT A LIGHT COATING
OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...RAIN MAY MIX
WITH SNOW LATE THURS NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLS INTO THE MID 30S. EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AT
THE COAST. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THIS LOW DEVELOPING TOO FAR NORTH IN ORDER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TO HAVE A DECENT SNOW EVENT OUT OF IT. THE LOW WILL REALLY INTENSIFY
ONCE EAST OF THE CAPE...BUT IT WILL BE TOO LATE. IT TAKES TIME TO
REALLY DEVELOP THOSE CONVEYOR BELTS THAT AID IN SETTING UP A NICE
FRONTOGENETIC DEFORMATION BAND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER. BY THE TIME THIS HAPPENS...NORTHERN MAINE WILL BE THE TARGET.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...MAINLY 50S TO START THURS MORNING WITH MOIST
SLY LLJ IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR
BLEEDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THURS
NIGHT...WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR...TO THE MID TO UPPER
30S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE CT VALLEY.

SUN WILL START TO BREAK OUT OF FRI...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKED TOO COLD.
THEREFORE...KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 30S OVER THE FAR INTERIOR TO LOWER
40S ALONG THE COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE VERY TIGHT ON FRI
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW. FORESEE GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...AND
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS IF THE
LOW DEEPENS MORE RAPIDLY.

COLD AND BRISK FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S. WEAK
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEEKEND
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO IRON OUT THE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT SO FAR THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
HINTS THAT ANOTHER STORM MAY BE IN THE WORKS SOMETIME IN THE MON
NIGHT TO WED TIMEFRAME. THE ECMWF SAYS ITS A BIG ONE...BUT WE/LL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP WITH TIME.-- End Changed Discussion --

Summary:

- Models still not working out great.

- Snow event Thursday Night - Friday
(I will begin discussing this in the winter weather outlook including school delay potential Friday)

- Very cold air through the weekend.

- SECS / MECS 11/19 - 11/21