NAO Outlook

See my post yesterday for the outlook of events through the end of the month. Overall expecting temperatures averaging 2 to 5 degrees below normal with 2 to 5 inches of snow through November 30th.

The models are still having a tough time handling this pattern. The latest GFS runs have become much more amplified in the past 24 hours, including the front coming through tomorrow night.

Timeline:

-Front to move through Thursday, with 850mb temperatures possibly nearing -10C. Highs in the 30's, lows around 20.
-Depending on hour far south vort max develops, could see backend snowfall through Saturday. GFS has moved the low north, but the EURO continues to show potential. If far enough south, could see significant snowfall for portions of New Hampshire.
- NAO starts to recover
- Inland runner per EURO, SECS to even MECS shown by GFS right now for Thanksgiving. GFS in fact is still showing widespread 12 to 24 inch accumulation across New England. Dont hold your breath though.
- PNA drops negative for the following weekend, with NAO approaching neutral. Generall average to a few degrees above average until AO reloads dropping a trough into the Ohio Valley. S/W could be picked up at this point for possible second SECS at the fall of the NAO.
- NAO fully negative with significant cold in the area. Seeing generally a dry pattern at this point through the start of December.
- NAO reloads around the 5th, resulting in another SECS potential.

For those that dont know:
SECS = Significant East Coast Storm (generally max 8 - 15 inches)
MECS = Major East Coast Storm (generally max 15 to 30 inches)
HECS = Historical East Coast Storm (generally max >30 inches)

Summary:

Im dreaming of a white Thanksgiving