Not many changes to previous thoughts. Surface temperatures will be around freezing Sunday evening, down a few degrees overnight, and back to near freezing by late Monday morning. 850mb temperatures will be rising with WAA out ahead of the short wave. Expect precipitation to start as snow and change to sleet and freezing rain by 7am Monday. 12z GFS has shifted the axis of max QPF northward about 30 miles. This would have a major impact on the area as the QPF gradient will be high. 12z GFS gives Keene .5 to .75, but right now thinking closer to .2 to .4, as the earlier runs have consistently shown. The heaviest precipitation will fall between 10pm Sunday and 4am Monday - enough for a school delay but Im not confident in a cancellation. 12z develops low pressure a little stronger, and hints at the coastal hanging around a little longer. The NAM is much faster, but considering the strength of ridging to the north and east, should be closer to the GFS solution.
Snowfall forecast for 12z Sunday through 00z Tuesday: 1.5" to 2.5"
Ice accumulation forecast for 12z Sunday through 00z Tuesday: .1"
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After this wave passes through, we have a chance of another period of ice and snow Tuesday night into Wednesday as a second wave of low pressure moves along the boundary. Forecasts for this storm will begin Saturday Night or Sunday Morning.
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In the short term, scattered snow showers are entering the region right now, and Keene will begin to see some snowflakes shortly.
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