Several potential winter storms

1) Friday 12/7 - A short wave will swing through the region with limited moisture. BL temperatures below freezing and surface temperatures around 30 will create 15:1 ratios, with .01 to .20" QPF across New England. The NAM is rather dry, even with some areas getting nothing at all, however the GFS has maintained at least widepread trace amounts tomorrow, so could see a coating to maybe a half inch of snow through tomorrow night. A few places may pick up 2 to 3 inches towards the north. Temperatures warm as storm pulls north on Saturday. ---Updates in the Winter Weather Outlook

2) Sunday 12/9 - Monday 12/10 - A thermal boundary will move south of southern New England on Sunday, bringing cooler temperatures south along with light snow. QPF light through Sunday Night, but could see an inch of accumulation. Boundary stalls south of the region overnight and slowly lifts back northward. WAA out ahead will push 850mb temperatures to near freezing. High pressure to our north will keep surface temperatures below freezing at least to the Mass Pike. WAA will bring a round of snow, changing to sleet in the afternoon to the area. Precipitation type will depend on the location of the boundary. The models have trended cooler the past 48 hours and it looks like mostly snow or snow and sleet here, however QPF max will be located closer to the boundary where 850mb and surface temps are above 0C. Could see a notable ice event to our south through Monday evening. At this point, would see 2 to 3 inches of snow here, however a shift to the north (which is possible considering there are 96 hours until the event) would bring higher QPF and a better chance for some additional icing as well. ---Updates in the Winter Weather Outlook.

3) Tuesday 12/11 - First wave of precipitation moves out Monday Night. The 06z and 12z GFS indicated much deeper low pressure approaching the Ohio Valley Monday Night. This would spread heavy precipitation back along the boundary into the region. This time, the location of the boundary is projected further north, leading to max QPF north of the Mass Pike. GFS shows max totals over 2.00 inches here. This would lead to a major ice event, followed by another period of snow. Forecast confidence for this event is low right now. ---Will begin discussion in the WWO tomorrow.

4) Friday 12/14 - This storm has had a little bit of show on the Euro and GFS, so I mention it here while confidence is low. Euro showing low pressure deepening off the New Jersey coast with widespread QPF over .5". This would lend itself to a signficant snow event for southern New England.

5) Monday 12/17 - Wednesday 12/19 - First Miller A potential of the season. The GFS has been suprisingly consistent in showing low pressure strengthening over the southern states with copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. While the GFS has had several variations of resulting tracks ranging from the Great Lakes to Bermuda, it is also increasing in its frequency of attacks on the East Coast. Taken verbatem, several runs show 20+ snowfalls across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. This storm potential has support from the ensembles indicating a steady fall in the NAO starting this weekend, and dropping negative towards the end of next week. The Euro has also recently alluded to the potential, showing strong low pressure in the southern states by day 10, and a -NAO in place. It was also included in my winter season forecast for a significant snow event a week before Christmas. Definitely something to watch.