Major East Coast Storm

The operational GFS has not moved much from its low track way out in the Atlantic while the ensembles are a little closer to the coast. However, the Euro has recently come in with a storm like no other. This solution would yield snowfall totals over a foot across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, maxing out near 3 feet in parts of New England. Below is one frame of the model run.



This storm has been on my radar screen for a long time, starting with the winter season outlook, and it coincides with the NAO dropping below 0SD. The GFS was the first to advertise the potential out in its 300 to 384hr forecast when the complete opposite is liable to occur. However, it stayed consistent. The GFS has recently lost the coastal storm senario, now sending the storm into the Atlantic but continues signficant intensity. Forecast shifts often occur in the GFS in the medium range. With the Euro now indicating the storm riding the coast, we still have a ball game.

In addition, another factor has been thrown into the mix: A tropical system. Yes, we are currently watching a tropical wave with potential for development (see the Tropical Weather Outlook). Depending on how this interacts with the developing storm in the southeast (if at all), a number of things could be affected, including a signficant increase in moisture.

Looking long range now, this storm, if it occurs, would have a continued impact on the northeast. The intense low moves north develops stronger high pressure over Greenland. This could continue a moderate negative NAO which would be key in keeping cold air locked in over the region.