Update

Going by current radar and surface observations, almost everything is going smoothly in terms of how Keene will make out with this storm. There are two issues right now however that could change the outcome for some areas.

The first one will have less of an impact here, although maybe in a few days. This is that, so far, cold air advection has been underperforming. In other words, low level cold is not as strong as was thought. Right now, the temperature in Keene is 4 degrees above the predicted high. This will not have a huge impact on this event, as upper air temperatures will allow for precipitation to be frozen, and surface temperatures will still be well below freezing through tomorrow morning. Precipitation type will be mainly snow through tonight, with a little bit of sleet, a period of freezing drizzle possible with sleet Monday morning before tapering off. As for the rest of SNE, portions of CT and RI may have to deal with rain if CAA doesnt pull through.

The second issue is the amount of moisture available. Radar and surface observations suggest Keene will still pick up .4 of water content. However, the NAM has been very dry to the north of the Mass Pike on recent runs, resulting in only a few inches of snow here with almost nothing north of Concord. The solution is right now being taken as suspect, because of current observations, but something that also has me nervous.

-As for delay potential, main trigger will be a period of freezing rain or freezing drizzle Monday morning in between waves of precipitation. The first wave will have the heaviest precipitation between 10pm and 2am, with the second wave starting around 5am with some light sleet through 9am. The sleet and freezing rain should be sufficient for a delay tomorrow, despite whatever snow accumulation occurs.

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Looking ahead (because it is always necessary for such an active pattern), snow/ice events likely Tuesday Night and Thursday.

Tuesday Night will likely have precipitation type issues even here in Keene. As I had mentioned above, the lack of cold air damming right now is not promising for future events. We may have to deal with a period of rain mixing with snow Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, it will be a light QPF event, but could still pick up 2 inches out of it.

As for Thursday, looking like a heavier event, with mainly snow. Not overlooking the possibility for up to 6 inches.