Final call for Friday 2/1 Ice and snow

A moisture-laden storm system will through the Ohio Valley and redevelop over New England tomorrow afternoon. I am very confident in water amounts of at least an inch and the possibility of precipitation to fall heavily at times with decent omega at 700mb, so the rest of the uncertainty is left with precipitation type. 850mb temperatures will be warming steadily starting tomorrow morning as WAA moves in aloft out ahead of the storm system. Precipitation will begin as snow and sleet and accumulate a few inches before changing to freezing rain. With strong high pressure to the north, we should be able to secure cold air at the surface for a while Friday afternoon. Count on signficant icing to occur Friday afternoon. Freezing rain could fall heavily, and with road surfaces below freezing, accumulate over a quarter inch. The possibility exists for amounts as high as a half an inch of ice dependent on how long low level cold holds on - it is for this reason that the NWS has issued a winter storm watch for the area. Precipitation will still likely change to plain rain for a short period Friday evening as WAA reaches the surface. Rain should change back to sleet and snow Friday night before tapering off.

Final Call:
Snow accumulation: 1.5" to 2.5"
Ice accretion: .25" to .4"

- Snowday outlook -
Sorry, but its not looking good for a day off. Everything is in position for nightmare traveling conditions... but not until later. What I presented as the main factor in the forecast earlier this week, indeed will dictate whether we get a snowday or not: Time. The models continue to slow the storms velocity, and precipitation will likely not reach the area until 11am. However, conditions will rapidly deteriorate as snow, sleet, and freezing rain accumulate quickly on roads. While I know that the school system and bus company dislike early dismissals (as demonstrated this past December), I believe the rapid accumulation of ice may force them to decide otherwise. A slight shift earlier in the arrival time of precipitation could still mean a cancellation.

Whatever the decision, travel conditions will be unsafe tomorrow afternoon, and people driving should take it slow (if you have to go out at all).