Some new options for tomorrow

So you may have noticed temperatures forecasted to reach 50 on Wednesday earlier this week. Well many things have changed. The models have shifted the forecasted position of the front slightly further south. The temperature gradient along this front is as high as 16 to 19 degrees: the difference between rain and a lot of ice. While upper level temperatures will likely still reach above freezing, low level cold could stay intact for much of tomorrow. It has never been a doubt about the amount of precipitation, but now with a change in the temperature forecast, we may have to deal with significant ice build up tomorrow, followed by a period of heavy snow and sleet tomorrow night and Thursday morning. Precipitation amounts on the order of 1.2 to 1.6 inches of water are likely with this storm, which would support warning criteria of ice and snow accumulations.

Main issues with the forecast are the timing and positioning of the front tomorrow. The NAM is a little further south of the GFS at this time, which while only dealing with small distances, translate to large temperature swings. While at this time, confidence is growing for a signficant ice storm, watch surface temperatures in Keene closely. We are going to be sitting close to freezing, and a swing in either direction will be the difference between flooding rains, significant icing, and major snow accumulations.

Snow accumulation forecast for Wednesday Night: 2.5" to 4.5"
Ice accretion forecast for Wednesday and Wednesday Night: .3" to .5"

- Snowday Outlook -
What this means of course is drastic changes to my thoughts for tomorrow. This is tricky (yes, once again) as a 1 mile shift in the front could be a 5 degree shift in temperatures, which would mean rain instead of freezing rain. At this point, the situation looks very dangerous tomorrow, and even with no school (which is very likely given the current forecasted front position) do not drive on untreated roads. Tomorrow is a questionable forecast, but Thursday is more certain. Thursday will likely be at least a delay considering snow accumulations.