Sorry for my absense from the webpage recently. In any case, a quick review:
we had a nice fix of snow on consecutive days New Years Eve and New Years to end the month with 39.3" of snow. While Keene does not keep official records beyond 30 years (regulation for records and averages), around New England numerous records were broken for monthly snowfall including Concord, NH for snowiest December on record, and Boston, MA for second snowiest on record (missed first prize by .2"). A burst of arctic cold followed, but did not stay long due to lack of a solid -NAO block. Instead, right behind the cold came record warmth flooded into the area. So far a once 21" snow pack has dwindled down to 5", and likely lower after rain tomorrow.
So now that is where we stand: above normal temperatures and a shrinking snow pack. End of winter? Not by any means. A storm system will move into the region tonight, and our remaining snow pack will assist in keeping a low level inversion in place long enough to sustain freezing rain and some sleet. Mid level temperatures may cool enough to allow some snow about an hour after the onset of precipitation. No snow accumulation is expected, however sleet could accumulate to .5" to 1" before changing over, and we will likely exceed a tenth inch of glazing by 7am Friday morning. Low level temperatures will rise above freezing by 9am ending any wintry precipitation. Delay? Likely (60%).Rain will continue through the day, with PWATS over an inch suggesting potential for periods of heavy rain. There is a slight chance for some thunder and gusty winds with a low level jet over 60kts.
Cooler air streams in for the weekend, but still at or above the normal. The models have had a consensus for the past 5 days for low pressure to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and rapidly move up the coast Sunday Night. Still some discontinuity track and strength wise. The Euro was originally the steadfast one holding a track close to New England, with the GFS barely giving New England a trace of precipitation. The roles have switched. The 06z GFS made an incredible jog westward with the low, now bringing QPF around an inch across much of New England. Meanwhile the Euro has gone east (not near as far as the original GFS though) and has a weaker storm. This is the first Miller A of the season and will be interesting to see its progress. Moderate to signficant accumulations of snow are possible across the region with the traget area likely west of I95. Count on max accumulations of over 6 inches somewhere in New England. Confident in at least 3 inches for Keene, and becoming more confident of being in the 6+ area of the storm. Cancellation? Chance (35%).
Beyond this storm, winter is likely to make a complete come back and even closing in on record cold. The arctic oscillation is maintaining negative SDs for now, and will likely continue to do so through most of January with another significant drop around the 20th possibly below -3SD! PNA is on its way to positive SDs and this time it looks like it will stick around. A weakening La Nina will allow for storms to begin undercutting the western ridge developing a split flow pattern, and a better chance for cold to lock in. With potential for a period of stratospheric warming to commence, cold and stormy weather will become more likely for late January and early February. Two target times exist right now. The first is another miller A potential for the end of next week. This will be the start of a signficant displacement of arctic air to the south. For the past two weeks, a motherlode of cold has been building near the pole, and this will be be released around the 20th, as the AO tanks, followed by the NAO dropping down past -2SD and finally becoming more west based. While an at least moderate snow event is possible, the main story will be the near record breaking cold entering the midwest, and seeping eastward as well. The possibilit exists for below zero fahrenheit temperatures to reach portions of Oklahoma through Tennessee after the 20th. The next target time is January 23rd through the 25th with a polar vortex dropping as far south as Tennessee and tapping Gulf moisture. This could turn out to be a major snow storm for the east coast.
Quick long term:
Still am expecting another thaw period similar to this past week some time in mid February followed by a very cold and snowy month of March. March ends normal to above normal temperature wise. April will see a brief period of cold and snow 4th through the 11th. Warmth follows. Atlantic tropical season could start up early this year (first TS maybe 4/15 to 6/1?).
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