Snow storm Tuesday - Wednesday

The models continue an overall slow trend to the south. Low pressure is currently located in northern Kansas. Still a considerable array of solutions for the next 60 hours. Starting to see some agreement that a triple point low will develop and take over in southern Missouri, however the location of its path from there on out is still disagreed upon. A few things to consider with the low track right now. First, high pressure ridge across the southeast is slow to break down. Still holding onto a wide expanse of 1016mb+ pressures. Unless the ridge begins to break down soon, recurvature would take place early. Second, s/w trough is maintaining positive tilt and also staying weak enough to continue east before recurving to the north. Third, at this time, most of the midwest and eastern states have the greatest snowpack so far this season. As a general rule, low pressure tracks along the southern edge of the snowpack where the greatest baroclinicity is located.

Despite an overall trend south, 850mb temperatures continue to be marginal for snow. Main issue is no high pressure to the north to keep the cold in the region, as well as the above normal temperatures we've had in the past 72 hours. I still expect a brief switch to rain early Tuesday night, before changing back to snow after midnight through Wednesday morning. Two periods of heavy snow are possible. The first being Tuesday evening, the second late Wednesday morning. Main issue with accumulations will be with marginal temperatures, we'll have low snow to water ratios. Generally expecting ratios no higher than 10:1. Total water equivalents of 1.0" are likely, but with about .2" possibly falling as rain. Considering the dependence on the location of a tight temperature gradient, and on model forecasts still not in great agreement, snow accumulation forecast will remain conservative for now.

Snow accumulation forecast: 4" - 7"

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Moderate snow event still likely Friday into Saturday. GFS forecast for this clipper becoming more interesting. Chance for advisory level accumulations is increasing. More details this evening.