Icy weather tomorrow, winter on the return

Low pressure moving out of the midwest will cut north to the Lakes region, bringing a warm front toward New England tomorrow afternoon. Light precipitation out ahead will overspread the area after midnight tonight. Precipitation should be in the form of snow or sleet as the latest soundings have 850-1000mb thicknesses under 3100m with an elevated warm layer not becoming apparent until after 8am and 850mb temperatures reaching freezing around noon. Up through 8am, water equivalent will be around .15". Considering this will comprise of some sleet as well, snow and sleet accumulations will be around 1" by 8am. Towards the later morning hours the forecast becomes trickier, as ptype will be dependent on the strength of low level cold and how quickly the warm front moves northward. While March climatology is not favorable for significant icing events, we could see a period of sleet mixing with freezing rain occur between 8am and noon, before changing to plain rain. In addition, if the elevated warm layer remains thin enough, sleet may continue to mix in even through 3pm. Any ice accretion will be minor, as primary precip types for this event will be snow, sleet, and rain. Heavier precipitation will move in quickly after 8am, however warmer air will follow close behind. Additional snow and sleet accumulations after 8am will be between 1" and 1.5".

--- Snowday Outlook ---
Confidence in a delay is high at this time. The forecast for a cancellation is tricky. Snow and ice accumulations will be minor, and considering surface temperatures are on the rise as spring approaches, road accumulations will not last as long as they did 3 months ago. However the timing is nearly perfect for a cancellation. If the sleet quits a little earlier than expected, definitely no cancellation, but a delay would still apply.

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As suggested, blocking is making a return later this week, and March will end on a cold note for sure. One thing that needs to be considered is the normal high for this time of year is now up into the mid 40's. Even with significant cold departures ahead, ptype will still be a question. Another factor throne in the mix with a -NAO is the possibility of suppression to the south, which hasnt been a problem this year compared to the number of Lakes cutters we've dealt with. Regardless of the details of snow, a cold regime is up ahead.