The NAO has finally progressed to a negative and west based state for the first time this winter. Behind this storm system on Friday, colder air will flow into the region resulting in temperatures 4 to 7 degrees below normal through the beginning of April.
The NAO began, as predicted, with an intense storm system, however it was supressed to the south (this past Sunday). The low is currently hung up near Nova Scotia. Coming up early next week is our second shot at a major winter storm. The models have been consistent in bombing low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast however have a fairly wide spread after that, and there are multiple indications of supression after the low moves off the Mid Atlantic coast. The Euro has kept the low close to the coast while the GFS has been steady in sending it well south of the region. The Ukmet recently trended toward the 12z Euro solution, but with a different senario all together, with the primary and leading shortwaves phasing. Still a lot of uncertainty as to how this all plays out in the end.
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