Synopsis...
Warm and humid air will flow into the region today and hang around through early next week. Thunderstorms will be a threat everyday through Monday. Heavy rain and poor-drainage flooding is an issue that will have to be monitored through the period. Drier weather will arrive for the middle of the work week, followed by another storm system for Independence Day weekend.
Today 6/27...
Skies started off mostly cloudy with patchy fog. Any fog burned off by 9am. Currently skies are partly to mostly sunny with high level clouds and a summer haze. Dew points are up to 64 now in Keene with a temperature at 79. Diurnal clouds will develop this afternoon, preventing maximum heating, with highs reaching the mid 80's. The main story today will be the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. Surface based CAPE approaching 2000 J/kg will enhance thunderstorm intensity. Convection should start to fire up by 130 as the convective temperature of 83 is reached. Organized thunderstorm activity will be hard to come by north of the MA/NH border however, so there is a chance that today could end up dry in Keene. Thunderstorms will travel ESEward into N MA this evening. Main severe threat area will be in southern MA. With PWATs between 1.4 and 1.6 this afternoon, any thunderstorms that develop could contain heavy downpours and some localized street flooding isnt out of the question. Next threat will be for gusty winds, with hail a minor threat at this time because of a high freezing level.
Tonight...
Thunderstorm threat will end NW to SE late this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Not ruling out an isolated storm here, however Keene should be done after 6pm. Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight. With a wet ground and high dew points, fog will develop again after midnight. Temperatures will drop into the low 60's.
Saturday 6/28...
Another warm and humid day will be in store. Early morning clouds and fog will burn off by 9am again, giving way to partly cloudy skies. 850mb temperatures will rise to 18C out ahead of another shortwave approaching the region. MOS data is widely spread from 80 all the way to 91 from the GFS. Considering cloud cover, not expecting highs above 86, as is, went with 84. Shortwave arrives in the late afternoon, so most of the day will be dry. With high CAPE and high PWATs, again the threat will exist for some severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall. Thunderstorm activity will fire up after 2pm, but the threat for organized activity wont arrive until the evening hours. Thunderstorms, some strong to severe will continue to move through the region Saturday Night. With lots of low level moisture, expect fog to develop once again. Skies will remain mostly cloudy which will prevent temperatures from dropping much.
Sunday 6/29...
Patchy dense fog will lift by 9am. Upper level trough approaches from the Great Lakes region and deepens. This system will be slow moving and usher in copious amounts of moisture. Dew points will rise to around 70 in Keene, lower 70s in N MA. Thunderstorm activity will be ongoing in the morning hours and continue through the day. Despite 850mb temperatures around 18C, cloudiness will keeps highs around 80 to 82. Any peeks of sun during the day will be enough to increase instability and enhance thunderstorm severity. With the excessive amounts of moisture available along with the slow forward motion of the upper level system, flash flooding will be a significant threat. Across the region, total rainfall through Sunday night will exceed an inch, with locally up to 5 inches possible in training storms. Sunday Night looks like uncomfortable sleeping weather. Temperature in Keene will hover around 70 near the dew point temperature. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the night.
Monday 6/30...
The story remains the same through the early afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will continue as the trough remains to our west. As the storm system lifts north and east, precipitation will shift out of western New England. 850mb temperatures will be around 15C and with cloudy skies, expect cooler temperatures. Cold air advection will start to work in during the evening hours, so cloudiness may start to decrease at that time. The threat for an isolated shower or thunderstorm will continue through Monday Night. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies anticipated with cooler, more comfortable temperatures.
Tuesday 7/1...
Skies will be in clearing mode through the day. Expect dry weather and decreasing dew points. 850mb temperatures drop to 7 to 9C, with partly cloudy skies, highs top out in the mid 70's. Lows dropping into the mid 50's.
Wednesday 7/2...
Partly to mostly sunny skies likely. Warm air advection will start to move in as the next system approaches.
Thursday 7/3...
Skies will be partly cloudy. Depending on the timing of the next shortwave, we may have a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon.
Friday 7/4...
Independence Day - will Mother Nature have some fireworks of her own? It'll depend on the timing of the system, but an isolated thunderstorm will be possible. Positive DVA moves into the region and temperatures and dew points will be on the increase.
Saturday 7/5...
Shower and thunderstorm threat increases. Good agreement at the moment from GFS ensembles and ECMWF for another intense upper level low approaching from the west. Confidence is high for a warm and humid atmosphere in place. What comes of it is the question: severe thunderstorm threat, or a washout?
Sunday 7/6...
At this time, it looks like the chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue into Sunday morning before moving east out of the region. Skies should start to clear for the afternoon allowing daytime heating to take highs to around 80.
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Max Temperature: Min Temperature:
Normal (KEEN) 80 °F / 26 °C 54 °F / 12 °C
Record (KEEN) 94 °F / 34 °C (1941) 40 °F / 4 °C (1927)
Yesterday 68 °F / 20 °C 50 °F / 10 °C
Rise: Set:
Actual Time 5:12 AM EDT 8:32 PM EDT
Civil Twilight 4:36 AM EDT 9:07 PM EDT
Nautical Twilight 3:51 AM EDT 9:53 PM EDT
Astronomical Twilight 2:54 AM EDT 10:49 PM EDT
Moon 12:37 AM EDT 2:30 PM EDT
Waning Gibbous, 60% of the Moon is Illuminated
Length Of Visible Light: 16h 30m
Length of Day 15h 20m
Tomorrow will be 0m 29s shorter.
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