Invest 92L

Invest 92L was declared last night in the Eastern Atlantic for the wave that moved off the African coast just 20 hours ago. Latest satellite imagery indicates that 92L is a very healthy wave and is displaying features of a tropical depression. It is likely it already is, however the NHC will wait a little while longer to make sure the storm survives. At this time, conditions are favorable for development including low shear and above normal SSTs.



Here is the latest release from the NHC:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

Latest model guidence suggests that 92L will begin to recurve to the NW by the time it reaches 30W.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1305 UTC TUE JUL 1 2008
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080701 1200 UTC
 
      ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
      080701 1200  080702 0000  080702 1200  080703  0000
 
       LAT   LON    LAT   LON    LAT   LON    LAT   LON
BAMS  10.8N 16.6W  10.8N 18.7W  10.8N 21.0W  11.3N 23.2W
BAMD  10.8N 16.6W  11.0N 18.9W  11.2N 21.1W  11.7N 23.3W
BAMM  10.8N 16.6W  10.9N 19.0W  10.8N 21.4W  11.1N 23.6W
LBAR  10.8N 16.6W  10.9N 19.4W  11.0N 22.5W  11.4N 25.7W
SHIP     25KTS        30KTS        38KTS        48KTS
DSHP     25KTS        30KTS        38KTS        48KTS
 
      ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
      080703 1200  080704 1200  080705 1200  080706 1200
 
       LAT   LON    LAT   LON    LAT   LON    LAT   LON
BAMS  11.6N 25.6W  12.5N 30.4W  15.9N 35.2W  20.8N 40.6W
BAMD  12.3N 25.6W  13.8N 29.9W  17.2N 34.8W  21.2N 39.9W
BAMM  11.4N 25.8W  12.6N 30.0W  16.6N 34.7W  21.4N 40.3W
LBAR  11.7N 29.2W  12.1N 36.0W  12.2N 42.5W    .0N   .0W
SHIP     60KTS         80KTS         84KTS        81KTS
DSHP     60KTS         80KTS         84KTS        81KTS


         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.8N LONCUR = 16.6W DIRCUR =270DEG SPDCUR =13KT
LATM12 =  10.8N LONM12 = 14.0W DIRM12 =272DEG SPDM12 =13KT
LATM24 =  10.7N LONM24 = 10.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  40NM WNDM12 =25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS =1012MB OUTRAD =120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =   0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Current 500mb analysis over the Atlantic does show a weakness in the ridge extending from 15N/30W to 25N/45W.



Depending on how quickly 92L organizes and strengthens, it could either take this route and remain over fish territory, or it may skirt underneath this weakness in which case we would have more options to discuss. However, climatology is not in favor of a long tracking Cape Verde storm.




Since 1950, only two storms have originated east of 40W: the first recurved early and died before reaching past 65W. The second was of more significance but is an outlier in the data. Coincidentally, 92L will don the same name as this storm if it develops.