Dolly continues to organize over the Gulf of Mexico. It is slowly repairing its inner core and now has an intense CDO with a well defined circulation with T#s up to 3.5. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane hunter plane indicate that there is a ragged eye with an open eyewall of 20nmi in diameter. Minimum central pressure reported by RECON continues to drop steadily, and the latest report was 991mb. At 12z, models initialized intensity at 55kts, however latest reports have it up to 60kts - just below the threshold of a category one hurricane. Upper air analysis shows a large anticyclone over Dolly which is supporting excellent outflow, with minimal shear. This combined with Gulf sea surface temperatures of 28 to 29C which Dolly will be over for the next 24 hours, will allow steady strengthening to a moderate to strong category 1 hurricane. Only inhibiting factor is dry air which continues to attack puncture Dolly's core, however as it organizes, it will be able to fight the dry air intrusions more. Latest trend of the SHIPS model has been upward in intensity to about a max of 75kts with support from the rest of the guidence, and which is where the KeeneWeather forecast takes it to before landfall. It should be noted that the SHIPS rapid intensity probability index is up to 40%, 3.3 times the sample mean. I do not anticipate rapid intensification to occur mainly due to problems with dry air.
Dolly is moving towards the northwest / 305 degrees, at 10kts. This trajectory should continue for the next 24 hours with a continued decrease in forward speed. After 24 hours, high pressure building north of Dolly will force it to turn slowly toward the west. 12z Model guidence is clustered around the Texas / Mexico border with a deviation of about 30 miles to the north and south. The decrease in forward speed will make "wobbles" in the track more likely before landfall. Currently, tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center, which means Corpus Cristi, TX will likely experience TS winds for a few hours. Right now it looks like Brownsville, TX (within 20 miles of the forecast track) will take a significant hit from Dolly.
www.KeeneWeather.com forecast for Tropical Storm Dolly
INITIAL 12z 7/22 23.7 -94.0 55kts
12HR 00z 7/23 24.6 -95.3 65kts
24HR 12z 7/23 25.5 -96.6 75kts
36HR 00z 7/24 25.7 -98.0 60kts ...inland
48HR 12z 7/24 25.8 -100.0 40kts ...inland
72HR 12z 7/25 25.9 -103.5 20kts ...remnant low
No comments:
Post a Comment