7/22/08 forecast - Heavy rain on the way

Synopsis...
Today will welcome a tropical airmass into the region that will stick around through Thursday. Very heavy rainfall is possible Wednesday into Thursday and could result in moderate flooding. Skies will clear on Friday. A weak cold front will cross the region on Saturday with some thunderstorms. Showery weather persists into Sunday and Monday with little change in the humid airmass.

Today 7/22...
Temperatures starting out in the low to mid 60's in the area with dew points in the upper 50's to around 60. Patchy fog will linger in some spots though 9am before lifting. Otherwise, relatively thick stratus cloud deck over the region will burn off a little in the afternoon, but sustain mostly cloudy skies. Frontal boundary to our north will once again trigger showers and thunderstorms. A lack of solar heating combined with mid level warming will limit severe threat. With ample low level moisture could see some heavy downpours. Clouds will keep temperatures down today. With southwesterly flow, will reach the low 80's this afternoon.

Tonight...
Mid level trough will develop into a weak cutoff low to our west. This will lock the region in a southerly flow and begin the transport of tropical air. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage as the night progresses, however the focus will remain further west, closer to the front. Temperatures will drop into the mid 60's with very low dew point depressions. Could be a sticky night.

Wednesday 7/23...
Cutoff low to our west with large damming high to our east will continue to support a southerly flow with a tropical airmass riding on its wings. Frontal boundary in central New York will progress slowly eastward. Low level moisture convergence combined with isentropic lifting and PWATs around 1.9 inches will allow heavy rainfall to develop by noontime. Could be a couple of breaks in the rain, one around 7pm and one later in the night. Waves of low pressure will ride along the front transporting more and more moisture into the region. Could see rainfall up to 2 inches by Thursday morning. Temperatures will be held down due to cloud cover with highs in the upper 70's. On the flip side of the coin, overnight lows will struggle to fall past 70. A very uncomfortable night is in store with dewpoints in the upper 60's.

Thursday 7/24...
Frontal boundary moves into eastern New York with cutoff low moving slowly eastward over the Great Lakes. The right rear quadrant of the jet will move over the region providing divergence aloft and with PWATs up to 2 inches, heavy rain threat will continue through at least the morning hours with at least another inch possible (See the Severe Weather Outlook for more details on flood potential). There is some disagreement among the models on the timing of the front. At this point it looks like Thursday afternoon may be drying time, with only some scattered showers left over lingering through Thursday evening. Temperatures, like Wednesday will be kept in the upper 70's, with dew points near 70. Thursday Night could be a lot different though. With the cold front departing, airmass will dry out a little, and allow temperatures to fall to around 60.

Friday 7/25...
Cold front will be off the coast, with only some high clouds left over on Friday. With mostly sunny skies after the heavy rainfall, can still expect a moist airmass to hang around with all the water on the ground. Temperatures will reach into the mid 80's with dew points in the low 60's and overnight lows dropping to around 60.

Saturday 7/26...
A weak cold front will approach the region, causing increasing clouds and a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and early evening. Daytime temperatures will be slightly cooler due to cloudcover.

Sunday 7/27 - Tuesday 7/29...
The cold front will cross the region during this period triggering scattered showers each afternoon. Temperatures will reach 80 each day with continued relatively high dew points.

Wednesday 7/30 - Thursday 8/1
The east will continue to be located in a trough downstream of midwest ridging which will continue an unsettled pattern along with ample low level moisture for any boundary to work off of. Wednesday could be a drier day, but it appears Thursday could see another disturbance bring showers and storms to the region.