Full of action

While many have been tracking Gustav across the Caribbean and through the Gulf, the Atlantic continues to be favorable for development. This has lead to Tropical Storm Hanna currently in the Bahamas, and the most recent Tropical Depression Nine (as of 11am EDT) in the central Atlantic. In addition, Invest 99L has been declared fresh off the African coast.

A quick summary of each area of interest:

Hurricane Gustav made landfall near Cocodrie at about 1430z (1030 EDT / 930 CDT) with winds of 95kts. This is just below category 3 major hurricane status. Nonetheless, it features a significant storm surge and it will be dumping up to a foot of rain across Louisiana through the next couple of days. In addition to major flooding concerns, the main inhibitor of the storm (dry air) will play a different role on shore - tornado genesis. Tornados could be even more common than usual with Gustav.

Tropical Storm Hanna is not far from hurricane status. This morning, while all eyes were on Gustav, Hanna tried to grab some attention as well. Despite notable shear limiting intensification the last few days, the central dense overcast (CDO) of Hanna featured extremely cold cloud tops this morning - a sign of future development. Earlier on, her center was just on the edge of the CDO due to the shear (pronounced by Gustav's outflow). However, recently the center has positioned itself underneath the CDO which means notable strengthening is in store for this storm. Air Force Recon is in Hanna as I type, and about half an hour ago extrapolated a central pressure of 985.6mb: nearly 9mb under the NHC 11am advisory! In addition, SFMR surface wind estimations have hit hurricane force. If it isnt a hurricane now, I have great confidence it will be by 5pm. Hanna is currently tracking slowly to the WSW. A turn to the NW with an increase in forward speed is likely over the next 3 days. Much of the SE coastline from N FL up through the Carolinas is at risk for a category 1, 2, maybe even 3 strike.

Tropical Depression Nine was declared by the NHC at 11am this morning, although it has probably fit the criteria for the past 12 hours. Latest satellite imagery shows a very well defined circulation with the center right underneath a small CDO. Dvorak estimates put it as a tropical storm, and I would imagine it will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Ike later this evening. 200mb divergence and ocean heat content could be better, but otherwise, all other factors point to steady intensification and we could have yet another hurricane to track by mid to late week. Ridging in the Atlantic appears solid enough to keep it on a general westward trajectory, and the United States should be prepared for another landfalling hurricane.

Invest 99L was declared yesterday evening with the first model runs at 00z. It has been holding its own in the eastern Atlantic and it could become a tropical depression later this week. The latest model plots curve the low to the WNW, reaching 20N/40W which gets it into the realm of recurvature. The track will depend on how much development occurs in the near term. Regardless, I think we will be busy enough with Hanna and Ike.