7/24/08 Forecast - More rain

Synopsis...
Showers and thunderstorms will be continuous through today, with a threat of torrential rains and signficant flooding. Some drying will take place on Friday before another storm system brings some storms this weekend. Another break midweek followed by possibly another heavy rain event.

Today 7/24...
Frontal boundary moves into eastern New York with cutoff low moving slowly eastward over the Great Lakes. The right rear quadrant of the jet will move over the region providing divergence aloft and with PWATs up to 2 inches, periods of very heavy rainfall will be possible with up to another 3 to 5 inches (See the Severe Weather Outlook for more details on flood potential). Currently, an area of heavy rain south of Long Island is preparing its strike. This area will be training over us today resulting in highest rainfall totals over western New England. There will be a small chance for some severe thunderstorms again today with high speed shear and decent MUCAPE aloft. Could see some damaging wind gusts in a few storms. Most severe activity will be over eastern New England today where a few breaks of sun are possible to aid instability. Here however, do not expect any sun at all. Temperatures will be kept in the mid 70's, with dew points in the 60's.

Tonight...
The models have slowed a little with the passage of the cold front, so could see heavy rain threat lasting through the evening. After about 10pm, only left over scattered showers expected. Skies will remain cloudy as moisture still remains intact. Cold air advection will drop temperatures to around 60.

Friday 7/25...
Cold front will be off the coast and clouds will be decreasing throughout the day. A slight chance of a left over morning shower, but doubtful. With some sunshine, temperatures will work their way up to the low 80's. Also, with all the ground moisture, any sun will make the air pretty sticky tomorrow. With clearing skies, lows will be able to fall into the upper 50's.

Saturday 7/26...
A weak cold front will approach the region, causing increasing clouds and a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the late afternoon and early evening. Warm air advection will help in raising high temperatures to the lower 80s despite afternoon clouds. It should be noted that MOS data brings temperature into the upper 80's even with cloudcover, but that is doubtful at this time. Low temperatures will be kept up in the mid 60's.

Sunday 7/27 - Monday 7/28...
The cold front will cross the region during this period triggering scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm through Monday. Temperatures will reach 80 each day with continued relatively high dew points.

Tuesday 7/29...
Tuesday is a low confidence forecast right now. There are some discrepencies in the timing of the frontal passage. The front is expected to slow down considerably as it crosses the region, however where is begins to do this is unsure. Depending on the timing, Tuesday could either be a day of drying or feature more scattered showers.

Wednesday 7/30...
This appears to be our break from rain as high pressure pushes our way. Skies should be partly cloudy as the cold front pushes offshore and we wait for the next storm. Temperatures will be a little cooler behind the front with highs in the upper 70's and lows in the upper 50's.

Thursday 7/31 - Saturday 8/2...
The east will continue to be located in a trough downstream of midwest ridging which will continue an unsettled pattern along with ample low level moisture for any boundary to work off of. Another short wave will amplify over the Great Lakes on Thursday bringing more potential for heavy rainfall. Depending on timing, this could last into Friday. Saturday will be some time for drying. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side, in the 70's and lows around 60.