Main rounds coming tonight/tomorrow

So far today all the action has been kept over eastern NY state. Widespread 2 inch plus amounts have been reported with upwards of 6 inches! The area of rain is moving towards the NNE and only has a small component in the direction of SNE. As for severe weather in that area, a severe thunderstorm watch was issued by the SPC earlier today covering all of CT, RI, S MA, E NY, down into NJ, and W PA, but so far thunderstorms have remained below severe limits. This is mainly due to a lack of any low level instability.

Across Connecticut, depending on where you were, you may have even scored a little bit of sun shine today. Further east, E CT into RI and SE MA were alone as the unexpected exclusive receivers of severe weather from one very intense cell that plowed through. North of the Mass Pike, skies were overcast all day long, but with generally under an inch of rainfall.

Tonight, the area of rain in E NY right now will slowly shift into western New England. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be possible mainly north of the Mass Pike. South of the pike it is questionable where the southern edge of the rain shield will lie.

In terms of severe weather tonight, the watch over SNE remains in effect until 10pm. Radar in New York City and Philadelphia show scattered thunderstorms with cores up to 60dBZ so cant rule out some signficant boomers through midnight. These storms arent working off of instability so much as they are triggered by overrunning warm moist air and sustained with the high levels of shear. These features will remain with us through tonight and tomorrow, so there is no reason for convection to wane. Considering the high shear levels, the threat for an isolated tornado still exists.

Short range models indicate a break in the rain early tomorrow morning, before the main event comes in. This will be a plume of heavy rainfall that will train over the region through tomorrow evening. The rain should reach the south coast by 2am EDT, extending up to N MA by 6am. Additional rainfall of 3 to 5 inches will be possible in western New England with lesser amounts as you go east. The NAM is indicating locally up to 10 inches across parts of W MA, VT, and SW NH while the GFS shows up to 5 inches.