Two days ago, there was enormous model agreement for a very intense storm cutting north to the Great Lakes, presenting warmth, heavy rain, and high winds to New England. Yesterday, the model forecasts began scattering. There was a large jump eastward, but more spread was added. The forecast was still for a major to historic type event, but now we were on the snow side, with blizzard conditions for portions of the region.
Last night, and so far today, the trend east continues, with the pockets of energy in the trough never fully phasing, keeping the trough broad, neutral, fast, and east. And now we have the Euro, previously adamant on the Great Lakes bomb, well offshore with a weaker low.
The GFS has trended east, but not as much so, and continues to present a storm system rapidly deepening as it passes near Cape Cod. The 00z and 06z runs showed a New England blizzard, but the 12z was too far east. The NAM has had a different approach with primary low pressure well to the east, but also a weaker low centered over SE New England (psuedo Norlun style) with a vertically stacked H85 low and a moderate to heavy interior hit. The 18z GFS also moved toward this idea.
So in summary, the energy in the trough is much less consolidated, leading to a weaker system further east. There is still potential for a snowfall of around 1 to 3 inches here. More, if the storm system can develop faster. There is still a ways to go especially considering the shifts we've already seen with this storm and during this winter!
Otherwise, big failure on the part of the forecast models from 5 days out.
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