Models move EAST

And just as I suggested yesterday, the model forecasts for the major (potentially historic) storm Tuesday has shifted east notably. This includes the entire 00z model suite, except for the UKMET, which still takes the bombing low pressure center into New York state. The ECMWF made the largest jump of all the guidance, taking low pressure southeast of Cape Cod, which would bring a major snow storm to interior SNE.

What made this shift possible is that the two main pieces of energy involved do not fully phase until much later than previously shown. The result is a trough that maintains a neutral tilt longer and further east. It still produces a very intense storm that rapidly intensifies as it moves north, but just slightly weaker than the previous solutions, and more importantly, further east. This is only one run, but considering that all of the guidance made the shift, it's unlikely that it is just a blip, but more likely a valid shift or trend. However, the next model runs will be VERY IMPORTANT to verify the shift.

00z ECMWF:



06z GFS:



06z GFS ensembles:



If the trend holds true through today's model runs, I will begin to discuss this storm in the winter weather outlook page tomorrow.