The Euro wins again? All model guidance has shifted northward and are coming in line with the ECMWF. What does this mean for the region? Well, it adds ptype issues for S CT, RI, and SE MA, and extends the widespread 5-10" snowfall region even north of Concord, NH. Water equivalents over .5" are likely up to Concord, and maybe north. Jackpot w.e. will be north of the mass pike, probably along Rt. 2. This area could reach up to around .8". KEEN is close to the jackpot area per 00z and 06z guidance, and with decent ratios, we pull off 7" to 11"
However, just coming out as I type, the 12z NAM throws another wrench into the works. The NAM says what northern shift? Verbatim, the jackpot is along the mass pike and south into northern CT. Alright so which is it? Well, it still spits out >.25" up through NNE, with likely close to .4" in Keene. But another crazy shift from the NAM from .75" on the 06z run. Is the 12z correct? We'll see what the GFS has to say. Regardless of the 12z NAM or other models, I believe SNH will reach 6" as just a rule of SW flow events that the southern end of guidance doesnt usually make out well. It's just a matter of whether or not we get anything more than that.
Snow growth is decent, but nothing spectacular. I don't anticipate another 12/31/08 up here. Frontogenesis is also decent towards Sunday morning, and we may grab a few hours of 1"/hour snowfall.
Through Sunday afternoon, accumulations of 5" to 9" is a good bet in Keene.
After the rest of the 12z guidance comes out, and we can determine the validity of the 12z NAM, then it is nowcasting time, and tracking the surface low and radar.
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