18z GFS ensembles are wet

The 18z GEFs brings .75" to I91. A notable shift from the 12z run, as well as notably wetter than the 18z GFS operational run.

My current thinking:


Still looks like the jackpot lies from NE CT to Worcester to SE NH. These locations will likely see over a foot of snow. I did eliminate the 12+ area, and used 14 as an upper limit. Someone will likely see over 14, maybe even a few 20"s, but the timing of the dryslot does have me concerned with the the extent of QPF, so for now I'll play more conservative. To the southeast of Worcester, although QPF increases even more, approaching 2" on the cape, sleet becomes a concern, with rain or freezing rain possible on the Cape. To the northwest of Worcester, amounts will drop off with lower QPF. Sharp gradient from 8" down to 2" is likely. Right now, I think it may align about right along I91 north of the MA border, with totals to the west (Cheshire county) ranging from 4" to 10" west to east, and totals to the east (Windham county) between 2" and 4".