Shifts west, NAM onboard

The 12z ECM held pretty steady today. The 12z GFS came back from the east 06z run. And it took until the 18z run for the NAM to shift the 75 miles or so to get back in the pack. All in all, slowly reaching consensus. 12z ECM, 12z GFS, and 12z GGEM the favored models at this point.

18z GFS is a little concerning. It continues the trend of sliding a dry slot quickly northward, shutting precipitation off on the coast before daybreak Monday and reaching SNH by 7am. This lops about .25" off of total water equivalent across the region. We'll see where the rest of the guidance goes from this.

I want to take a look at the 18z GFS ensembles before posting my newest map, so I'll have that out probably around 6pm. But the general theme will be to shift the gradient NW from this morning. For Keene, we're looking at around .4" to .6" water equivalent, which with decent ratios translates to 5" to 9" of snow.

The area forecast discussion from the NWS in Taunton this evening highlights the uncertainty that still exists:

EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FEATURES AND FORCING MAY ALLOW THAT MAX AXIS OF SNOWFALL TO SHIFT WEST OR EAST A GOOD 50-75 MILES...ALLOWING IT TO OCCUR AS FAR EAST AS THE EASTERNMOST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS TO AS FAR WEST AS THE CT RIVER VALLEY.