There will be two separate events. The first one will be associated with weak waves of energy traveling south of the region tomorrow. This will spread a light snowfall across much of the region ranging from under an inch in Keene to 2-4 along I95.
The main event will be during the day on Monday. H5 low lifts north along the coast with dual jet convergence and surface low pressure strengthening just southeast of the region. Low level deformation will develop a band of heavy snow across southern New England. Generally looking at an 1" to 2" of water equivalent across SE MA, RI, and SE NH into S ME. Inside of I95 in New England, a notable portion of this could be sleet as the mid levels warm. However, strong high pressures to our north and west will secure cold air at the surface ensuring an all-wintry precip event for the entire region. Where precipitation stays all snow in SE New England, total accumulations could easily exceed a foot.
There is still considerable uncertainty with regards to the western extent of QPF. The nature of deformation banding will cause a very sharp gradient on the western edge. Literally, total snow accumulations will range from 2 to 12 inches in just 40 miles. The ECM has shifted west in its last two runs. The GFS was significantly west in its 00z run and then shifted back in the 06z run. The NAM is an eastern outlier with the cutoff actually along I95. SREF mean snowfall is also east. The HPC supports the western edge of guidance. Regardless, it is very likely that Keene will end up on the lighter side of the gradient. At this time I would say 3-5" for Keene. Given the right position of the gradient, it is quite possible that Walpole could get 1-2" while Rindge gets 6-9".
This is my current thinking, which is very much subject to changes.
By the way, for those with interests further south, portions of North Carolina through Virginia and Maryland could also be looking at accumulations reaching 12" from this storm tomorrow.
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