Complexity

Today's model guidance has trended toward supressing low pressure further south. The ECMWF, GFS, and ensembles show low pressure being forced south of the region, spreading moderate QPF across SE New England with light precipitation cutting off over western New England. This senario would deliver a couple inches of snow to NW MA, SW NH, with increasing amounts toward I95 where 4 to 7 is possible. Along and SE of I95, mixing with sleet and freezing rain will cut back on totals. 1040mb high pressure to our north will secure notable cold air damming across the region, ensuring a wintry senario for everyone. Should the low track shift back west, this would introduce greater snow totals in western New England and also present the potential for a formidable ice storm.

The NAM and SREF continue to display a track furthest NW, with a change to sleet backing even into SNH. QPF totals are much higher.

Many things consider: first - clearly there still is not a good consensus. Second, while the latest model runs are southeast, it should be noted that the ECMWF (the recognized voice of reason among weather models) has flip flopped three times ...in the last three runs. There is anything but consistency being displayed. Third, the one consensus is for very strong high pressure to our north and west. This should prevent a track any further west than crossing Cape Cod. As already said, this secures wintry precipitation for everyone.

Fourth - Most model guidance has switched to a two storm solution. The discussion above is for the first storm. The second low pressure that moves our way may track even further southeast. Considering this is only the first day that has shown two distinctly separate storms, and this type of situation is usually unstable, it's still possible that we move back to phased solution in which we have one main storm sometime Sunday - Sunday Night.

At this point, the timing is for the first storm to be centered on Sunday, and the second storm to move through on Monday- Monday Night.