Miller A storm potential Sunday

We've seen it shown a bunch of times this season, and it has yet to pan out. But here we are again, facing model guidance advertising a Miller A nor'easter for this upcoming weekend. This storm has been on the Euro for about 4 days now, and the GFS picked up on it a couple days after that.

The situation:

Energy will dive out of the Pacific northwest into the central plains by Friday with surface low pressure taking shape over the southeast.
A few senarios exist:
1) The storm stays completely detached from the northern stream, with a cutoff low over the southeast --- Major southeast snowstorm (possibly Mid Atlantic too), New England stays dry.
2) Northern stream shortwave phases with the southern stream and pulls an intense storm system up the east coast. Timing of the phasing would dictate wintry impact areas. An early phase = rain for most of the east coast with Appalacian snow. A later phase would result in a snowier solution for SNE.
3) Northern stream speeds up, but stays unphased. This results in two separate storms. The fast northern stream crushes western ridging resulting in the southern wave moving further north (impacting New England). Then the northern piece of energy moves in (some models have it triggering a coastal low).

Of the three possibilities, the likelihood of number one has diminished significantly in the last few days. Number three is plausible. Number two is most likely in my opinion. This would present precipitation type issues to most of the region. One thing to consider is the fact that we'll be looking at strong high pressure to our north and west following the storm on Friday, and going into the weekend storm. This should stop the weekend system from cutting north too quickly, so a Great Lakes cutter is unlikely. The other thing is that with the strong high pressure, ageostrophic northerly flow will create strong cold air damming. While, climatologically, it is difficult to get significant ice storms this late in the season due to the increased angle of the sun, it is not impossible.

Latest model guidance suggests that significant winter weather is likely to impact the northeast Saturday through Monday. The potential exists for this to be a longer duration event, with some areas picking up high QPF totals.