Model Madness II

The 00z and 06z GFS and 00z and 06z NAM both displayed major to historical snowstorms / blizzards for the upper Mid Atlantic and New England regions. Verbatim, there would be widespread accumulations of 1 to 2 feet with snow winding down Wednesday morning. NOGAPS came west, SREF came west, then east slightly at 9z (latest), GGEM is west, and NGM is west.

I won't get into the details of the extreme potential involved with possibly a stalling system, and prolonged snowfall because we still have more guidance to discuss:

The UKMET and ECMWF have remained steady on the eastern edge of guidance, with a weaker storm that just grazes New England. This is very important, because the Euro has the best track record of all, and is pretty much the decider of go, or no go on the storm.

Given a track further east, essentially missing the region, there is another potential to discuss (just to add to the confusion in this forecast). There has also been advertised a Norlun type event with inverted trough set up, which would result in a moderate snowfall for much of the region. At this point, this looks to be our best bet in terms of snowfall, although Im not totally losing hope for the historical end of the model forecasts.

Although nearly impossible to give a forecast right now, I would say Im confident in accumulating snows, I am gaining some confidence in a plowable event, and I am *dreaming* of the 06z NAM coming true.

In addition to huge discrepencies with amounts, the timing of this storm is also up for grabs. The more amplified solutions are generally slower, with the bulk of the storm Tuesday Night. Whereas the more progressive (east) solutions bring snow here Tuesday morning. I am leaning later with the storm, as that has been the general trend.

One way or the other, this storm is going to make many forecasters look bad.

--- Snowday Outlook ---
Okay, there's potential for something on Tuesday and/or Wednesday. That's all I can say at this point.