12z model guidance

Frustration. GFS and NAM dropped their dream solutions and headed back east. The best chance for snow per their forecasts would be with the inverted trough which incidently, still gives SNE a moderate snow event on the NAM (4" to 8" deal). The GFS is much drier, but it has been experiencing some issues with surface to mid level disconnect. Mid level evolution suggests something close to the NAM.

The 12z NGM is still on the west side of guidance, and extrapolated from it's 48hour truncation would bring a huge hit to SNE. The NGM however is not a model you want to bank on with little support.

9z SREF is wet, with decent probs up for 4+" and some low probs for 8+".

12z ECMWF continues with a no go on the coastal, but a bit more promising with the inverted trough idea, which seems to be becoming a theme.

I think we are coming down to a fight between the high resolution models and lower resolution models. The energy in the trough that will drop into the OV is concentrated in smaller eddies, so it may be valid that the low res are not fully picking up on this, and even the high res are somewhat missing it. We'll see. It's very hard to go against the continuity of the all-knowing Euro.

As it is, advisory level snowfall doesn't look bad for SNE Tuesday into Wednesday (still uncertain on timing). If I had to give numbers right now, I would say 3" to 5" in Keene.