Somewhere, beyond the sea

Bobby Darin says it all. An historical series of model runs in the past week (Rain, to heavy snow, to light snow, to blizzard, to light snow). The progression of model forecasts draws a nice parallel to the Cardinals proximity to the win tonight. But just as they failed, we will not be getting the historical storm or histrionic storm that the models showed at times in the last 24 hours. All models are now east, the Euro wins again, and we'll be chalking up this storm as a near miss. What the last 24 hours have done is remind us how perfect a set up must be to produce the classic east coast winter storm. For two runs, the NAM and GFS produced the picturesque blizzard, but it was threading the needle, which rarely actually verifies.

It's been two years now since Keene's last 12+" storm (Valentine's Day 2007), and 8 years since our last true blockbuster (March 2001). As snowy as these last two winters have been, we're in a major snowstorm drought.

So what is this week looking like then? Well, we still have a weak inverted trough signal, which would produce light snows across the region Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Certainly still plausible to get some decent accumulation (2-4" not out of the question yet). Timing isn't great if you're looking for time off from school. Slight chance of a delay Wednesday.