Second call for Wed N

The NAM continued to advertise a large delivery of snow for much of CNE and NNE Wednesday Night into Thursday, with a faster secondary development and a longer period of precipitation. On the 12z run, SNH would be getting up to around 10". However, the 18z (latest run) has shifted toward the GFS which has been advertising a delayed transfer of energy resulting in a quicker warm up, as well as a quicker dry slot ending precipitation Thursday morning.

The main change in the forecast for this storm is quicker timing. No change to the start time: Snow should begin falling in the around around 8 to 9pm Wednesday. Warm air advection will pound the region Wednesday night, changing snow to a brief period of sleet followed by rain up to the MA/NH border. Still looks like the northward progression of the snow/rain line will slow a little at that point, but nevertheless will pass over Keene by 6am Thursday morning. Surface warming might be delayed slightly so some freezing rain / drizzle isnt out of the question before a change to plain rain. Regardless of the changeover, the bulk of the precipitation will have fallen beforehand anyway. General QPF consensus is around .7" which given the changeover and reduced ratios toward the end translates to around 5.5" which is the general agreement of the models.

I've shifted higher totals northeast in accordance with the slight trend toward a faster dry slot. Currently expecting 4" to 5" in Keene.

--- Snowday Outlook ---
Moderate snowfall totals, plus potential light icing, and the fact that accumulations will be heavy making removal difficult all lend to the likelihood of a delay. Timing has become more of an issue with regards to cancellation potential, and considering the majority of the precipitation will be done by 6am, I think a cancellation is unlikely.