Clouds and rain

Synopsis:

Upper level low dropping into the region will renew the chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. New England will be thrown back into the pattern and clouds, rain, and chilly temperatures next week.

Discussion:

Low pressure moving through southern Quebec today will meander to our north tonight as the upper level low closes off over the region. Cloudy skies will remain with us tonight, however mid levels dry off a bit tomorrow morning ahead of the upper low. This will allow some peaks of sun through noontime. Any breaks of sun will reestablish instability over the area and with continued cyclonic flow we will likely see showers and thunderstorms become more numerous toward the afternoon. Considering the cold pool aloft, small hail may accompany thunderstorms. High temperatures will be held back in the mid 70's due to cloudiness.

The threat for showers and storms will come to an end Saturday night with the loss of diurnal heating. Clouds will remain locked in place. Low temperatures generally around 60.

On Sunday, the next piece of energy moves toward the Great Lakes region with a strong surface low in southern Ontario and a triple point moving through the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure to our southeast will maintain an easterly flow keeping clouds over the area, especially eastern New England. Some breaks of sun will be possible further west, and this could destabilize the atmosphere enough for another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Monday, upper low drops back into place over the northeast. Again, clouds and showers likely. 850mb temperatures rebound a bit ahead of the trough, but clouds will keep highs back in the mid 70's.

Tuesday through Thursday, the same upper low will remain locked in, weakening over time. Cold air advection under the low will knock back temperatures, keeping highs in the low 70's. In general, expect periods of showers particularly in the afternoon with the diurnal instability.

Friday, the same process we saw this past week: the low weakens, lifts north, and we could see a brief warm up ahead of the next low waiting over the Great Lakes. Low pressure moves to our north, dragging a cold front with it, triggering another round of showers and thunderstorms.

This upper low may have different plans however, lifting further north and avoiding the region. Could we maybe have some pleasant weather next weekend?