Storms firing, CT bullseye?

Multiple clusters of severe thunderstorms have sprung up from eastern PA into central NY. The SPC has placed these areas along with far western New England in a severe thunderstorm watch.

At the moment, stratus clouds remain locked in over eastern MA and most of NH and ME. These areas are struggling to reach even the 70's. Meanwhile, the sun has been out across CT and western MA where temperatures have reached the mid to upper 70's and are on their way to highs in the low 80's. The Keene area remains on the boundary between these two air masses. The sun has peaked out once or twice, with temperatures in the low 70's at the moment. We should see some more sun this afternoon before convective influences rebuild the clouds back over us. There remains a decent influx of low level moisture with dew points in the low to mid 60's across most of southern New England up into western NH and VT. This is aided by a 20kt southeasterly low level jet from Long Island into western New England. This flow, with a southwesterly 500mb jet is producing 30 to 40kt of shear.

With moderate dew points and rising surface temperatures, surface CAPE has already eclipsed 1000J/kg over western New England and up to 2000J/kg now over CT and southwest MA. An 3km EHI of 3 has shown up in northern CT as of noon EDT which is suggestive of a high severe weather potential. Anybody with interests in southwestern New England today should closely monitor the development severe weather situation this afternoon.