Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Tracking severe weather

With a cold pool of air aloft and the next shortwave trough rotating toward the region, severe thunderstorms will be possible today across eastern New York into western New England. The main deciding factor for thunderstorm intensity will be the extent destabilization through this afternoon. Stratus clouds have a lock on much of New England this morning, and if they take a long time breaking up, surface high temperatures could be more restricted. Otherwise, thunderstorms will move into the area primarily after 2pm, with the main threat being large hail (See the SEVERE WEATHER OULOOK for more details)


This will be a brief discussion for the updated forecast. There are very few changes that have been made for the next 6 days, however beyond that the forecast becomes more uncertain. The ECM in the last 24 hours has cooled the forecast down signficantly with the upper low sliding further south in the long term, and 850mb temperatures being driven back to around 6C. Even with sunny skies, this would only support highs around 70. I am hesistant to go that extreme, but certainly cooled the forecast highs a few degrees. As expressed in the previous discussion, model guidance is definitely unsteady for the day 6-10 period.

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