Fireworks Forecast

Finally some sunny skies this morning. However, they will not last long. Mid level cloudiness is advancing from the west out ahead of the next shortwave trough. It will not be the same gray sky dreariness as yesterday at least. With southwesterly winds, temperatures will be rebounding up into the mid 70's. This is still 5 degrees below the normal for today, but it will certainly be welcomed after sitting in the 60's most of yesterday.

As for precipitation chances, the frontal boundary moving slowly eastward will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Vertical shear is fairly weak so we will not see much in the way of organized lines, but rather single cells and small multicell clusters. Cold air aloft will allow for small hail to be a threat in any stronger thunderstorms. Available moisture levels will be lower than the past few days, so not expecting the same washout conditions, but storms will also be slow moving, so any that do develop could be a threat for flash flooding.

So what about for the festivities in Keene? At this point, the main period for showers and storms looks like between 2pm and 6pm. After that, the best dynamics will be offshore, and with decreasing instability with the loss of daytime heating, the thunderstorm threat will be limited. I think we could escape Mother Nature's fireworks to have our own.

An updated weekend forecast will be posted shortly.