This question has been asked many times by many people in the northeast over the last week (Answer further down). A perpetual upper low near the northeast has locked in the clouds and rain. Training of showers and thunderstorms has resulted in some areas picking up 4 to 8 inches of rain over the last week. Flash flood warnings are out for much of New England this morning as another batch moves through.
A short wave rotating around the upper low is moving off the Mid Atlantic coast this morning and will passing to our southeast this afternoon. Associated surface low pressure is located south of Long Island generating warm air advection underneath the cold pool aloft. This instability along with abundant moisture is producing heavy showers and thunderstorms. As the shortwave moves to our east, showers will become less widespread this afternoon.
The upper low lifts northeast on Friday, allowing warmer temperatures and a chance for showers and thunderstorms as a frontal boundary crosses during the day. Right on cue, the next upper low drops in on Saturday. This one will be a tighter circulation, powering a strong jet south of the region. Along with cold air aloft, and still plenty of atmospheric moisture, showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the day.
Sunday ... a break. The ECM has shifted toward the GFS in drying out the column on Sunday as the upper low departs. Partly to mostly sunny skies can be expected with highs in the mid 70's. The next disturbance will be rotating northeast from the Mid Atlantic region with showers Monday night into Tuesday.
After that, we could finally see a taste of summer warmth. Ridging will slide east toward the end of next week, with zonal flow across the CONUS and increasing temperatures for New England.
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