12z runs offer hope

The 12z NAM made a notable shift northwest, bringing accumulations of 10-20" into much of Massachusetts. Southern New Hampshire remains on the northern edge, where there is a tight gradient. A shift in one direction or another could mean the difference between an inch and a foot of snow. The 12z GFS also shifted northwest slightly, lending support to the overall trend. Another important signal is potential for a slower moving system. The closed 500mb low will be drifting south of New England, and the question is how much it will be able to capture and stall the surface low. Some portion of southeastern New England could see a longer duration storm Wednesday through Thursday.

At this point, the storm is within the 24 to 36hr timeframe, not leaving much room for major adjustments. The northward shift does however present the possibility of greater snows for SNH. For Keene, the best bet at this point is 3" to 6", however this is subject to change.