Round 1

Model guidance continues to advertise robust QPF for Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. The exact evolution of the offshore low is still uncertain. The NAM and GFS appear to be suffering from some convective feedback, holding the low further east. Meanwhile, the UKMET, Euro, and CMC all pull the surface low toward New England. This would in fact help reinforce colder air over SNE, as a stronger northern ageostrophic flow develops. Precipitation type issues will definitely still exist Tuesday afternoon and during the day Wednesday up to Rt 2 in Massachusetts. Lower elevations of Keene may mix with rain for a time Wednesday afternoon, but above 1000ft, precip should be all snow.

Any snow accumulation Tuesday afternoon and evening will be on the light side, around 1-3 inches through 10pm. However, snowfall rates will increase after midnight, with heavy snow likely between 4am and 4pm on Wednesday. SREF probabilities are even indicating potential for 2"/hr rates. By 6pm, precipitation should begin to lighten up quickly as dry air moves in at the mid levels. Some light snow or drizzle may continue as the low levels remain saturated.

For Keene,
Total accumulations through 12z Thursday morning: 8-14"
For elevations above 1000ft: 11-17"